Marketwatch North America

Daily Insights
June 24, 2024

The dollar is broadly lower against the G10 today: -0.42% vs. EUR, -0.33% vs. SEK, -0.23% vs. JPY, and -0.20% vs. CHF and several sub-0.25% declines. The tug of war between economists and Fed officials over whether the Fed will cut rates this year was reignited by Blackrock’s updated forecast for two cuts. Fed Funds Futures are implying a 63.5% probability of a cut at the FOMC’s September meeting and a 78.8% probability of a cut at the December meeting. Several Fed members are scheduled to speak this week and will likely use the opportunity to tamp down rate cut expectations.

The primary focus of this week’s economic data is on Friday’s core PCE (personal consumption expenditure) deflator, the Fed’s favored inflation gauge. The month-over-month reading for May is forecast to drop to 0.1% (0.2% previous) which would mark its lowest point for the year. And the forecast for YoY core PCE is a decline to 2.6% (2.8% previous), continuing its uninterrupted string of declines since January 2023 and a fresh 2-year low.

Other key economic data includes Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence, Wednesday’s Mortgage Applications and New Home Sales, and Thursday’s 1Q GDP and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims.

Inflation data for Mexico (released this morning for mid-June) was higher than the previous in all categories and exceeded forecasts in weekly CPI (0.21% vs. 0.16% estimate) and YoY CPI (4.78% actual vs. 4.73% estimate).

Canadian CPI data for May is due for release tomorrow and is forecast to decline vs. the previous period in both categories (MoM & YoY).

USD/JPY traded to a 159.84 high on Friday and closed at 159.79, setting new daily and weekly closing records. Today the pair reached 159.92 before a flash selloff to 158.80. Trader’s nerves finally succumbed to fear of BoJ intervention, last seen at 160.03 on April 29th.

Economic Calendar

USD - FOMC Member Waller Speaks
NZD - Credit Card Spending y/y
CAD - BOC Gov Macklem Speaks
USD - FOMC Member Daly Speaks
EUR - German ifo Business Climate
GBP - CBI Industrial Order Expectations
EUR - German Buba President Nagel Speaks
EUR - Belgian NBB Business Climate
JPY - SPPI y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
usd/jpy 159.926 158.718
eur/usd 1.07388 1.06811
gbp/usd 1.26717 1.26224
aud/usd 0.66565 0.6626
usd/cad 1.3708 1.36697
eur/gbp 0.84778 0.84425
usd/mxn 18.1476 18.0149
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 5475.49
NASDAQ 19689.1
DOW 39316.1
GOLD 2327.09
SILVER 29.56

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.