The US-dollar traded lower overnight as the latest data releases were less than impressive, reversing Friday’s Employment driven gains and weighing on Wall  Street equities. This has assisted the AUDUSD pair to hold firm above 0.66-cents, but still finding supply into 0.6640’s a point of resistance. The key event for our session today will be the RBA Meeting. Economists are united on expectations for higher rates, but are divided over when and how high they will peak. For todays meeting the market is pricing a 66% chance that the Central Bank will pause at this meeting. Traders and analysts will pay close attention to RBA Gov Lowe’s press conference after the decision for guidance. Also today we get the release of Australia’s Current Account for Q1, expected to be A$15bln. So trading today may see some weakness on a ‘no’ move by the RBA, but expect this to be limited while the overall view is for further moves in interest rates. Support edges up to around 0.6560/70 zone with advances finding said supply into 0.6640/50 levels and targeting 0.6670’s.

Wall Street retreated as investors mulled over whether the US Fed would look to pause its interest rate hikes at the next policy meeting. The DJI fell -0.6%, the S&P500 dropped -0.2% and the Nasdaq closed -0.1% lower. Australian shares are expected to open lower, following the tracks of Wall Street, as investors await the announcement from the RBA on policy later in the day.

Gold bullion prices traded small gains after weaker US Services Sector growth suggested that the Fed may take a break on interest rate hikes at the next meeting. Spot prices gained 0.5%, reversing initial losses earlier in the day.

Copper prices, though firm, were under pressure going into the day’s close as traders await further indicators over demand forthcoming from China. On the LME, the base metal was up 1.5% for the session. Dalian Iron Ore prices posted gains following a report that suggested Beijing was working on plans to support their property sector.

Crude Oil prices finished the day slightly higher after making solid gains following the announcement that Saudi Arabia would cut production again in July.

The AUD was the best performing currency on Friday even as the US-dollar pulled out gains against many of the other majors, following a strong read in Non-farm payrolls for the US. The AUD has been well supported by moves across equity bourses and rising expectations for a rate rise by the RBA. Economists and markets are divided over which way the RBA will go at their meeting tomorrow, as lingering price pressures and firming home prices suggest a hike, while weaker activity and rising unemployment argue for a pause. RBA Gov Lowe has turned his rhetoric increasingly hawkish in recent weeks, as he points to concerns in building upside risks to inflation and labour costs, following minimum wage increases last week. So trading moves will mostly be dictated by market positioning ahead of tomorrow’s meeting and look for support around 0.6550/60 zone with advances finding supply into 0.6640/50 levels.

Wall Street rallied higher across the day, as labour market reports showed moderating wage growth pressures, suggesting the Fed may look to pause at the next meeting, all the while, investors continue to applaud the passing of the suspension of the US debt ceiling through congress, relieving a debt default. The DJI rallied 2.1%, the S&P500 gained 1.5% and the Nasdaq traded up 1.1% as well. Australian shares are expected to open higher once again today, tracking global bourses, and the possibility of a interest rate pause by the Fed at the next meeting.

Gold bullion prices retreated as better than expected US Jobs data lifted Treasury yields. Spot prices lost 1.4%, easing back from a session high earlier in the day.

Copper prices were trading positive for the week but a strengthening US-dollar after a lift in employment data shifted the tone. Dalian Iron Ore prices were maintained their favour into the weekend trading, on a surprise lift in factory activity in May for China.

Crude Oil prices remained supported, adding around $3, after the meeting over the weekend, where there seems to be some disagreement within the alliance, however, delegates delivered a production cut that many had expected. Saudi Arabia made an voluntary cut of 1 million barrels a day, which represents an attempt to support Brent around the $75/bbl price.

The AUDUSD has caught a bit of a rally, taking it from the six monthly low on Wednesday, lifted by a softer US -dollar after key economic releases had markets re-evaluating the likelihood of a pause from the Fed at the next meeting, or even a cut by year end. Also, risk markets have applauded the passage of the vote in Congress for raising the US debt ceiling, rallying share markets and commodities around the globe, all adding to the advance of the AUDUSD pair. Positive local data and China Caixin Manuf PMI yesterday, will spur on the initial recovery for the AUD short-term, as it looks to further consolidate above 0.6550’s. Initial supply at the old support level of 0.66-cents will make traders wary, ahead of next resistance at 0.6620, to close out the week. Closely watched today, will be the outcomes for the Fair Work Commission’s annual wage review, which may be a concern for the RBA in its attempt to combat inflationary pressures. Also today will be the release of Aust Home Loans report for April.

Wall Street rallied across the day, with signs of slowing wage pressures in the US initiating consideration that the Fed may pause on rates at the next meeting and the carrying of the vote to suspend the US debt ceiling through congress adding to the flight of capital back to risk markets. The DJI rallied 0.5%, the S&P500 gained 1% and the Nasdaq ramped up 1.3% as well. Australian shares are expected to open higher today, tracking global bourses, following the vote to lift the US debt ceiling passing through the House of Reps.

Gold bullion prices edged higher, as the US-dollar retreated on the tail of heightened expectations that the Fed may pause on rate increases as soon as the next meeting.

Copper prices turned positive for the day, spirited by an unexpected lift in China Manufacturing activity along with the vote of approval by the House of Reps to suspend the US debt ceiling. Dalian Iron Ore prices were also on the front foot, on improved prospects for China stimulus policies to bolster their economy, a surprise lift in Manufacturing activity and emerging supply disruptions.

Crude Oil prices reversed higher in anticipation of the upcoming OPEC meeting this weekend and the prospect of tightening supply.

The AUDUSD dropped to its lowest point since November last year, as the US-dollar strengthened against all the majors, however, a retreat in the greenback during the US session has favoured the AUDUSD pair, recovering back above 0.65-cents for the Asia open. Yesterday, RBA Governor Lowe projected that entrenched inflation in Australia would lead to higher interest rates and unemployment. The Australian CPI data was also released for April and came in at 6.8%, which was higher than the previous month. Also out yesterday was the China Manufacturing PMI which showed a contraction for yet another month. These conditions continue to weigh on the AUD as the market shapes its expectations in preparation for the next RBA Meeting, due to sit next week. Today we await the release of the final Judo Bank Aust PMI Manufacturing for May and Private Capex for Q1. Also, across our day will be the vote in Congress on raising the US debt ceiling, where there are still some concerns that there could be an issue. Short-term for the AUDUSD it would seem the rebound from the overnight low at 0.6458 would need to consolidate above 0.65-cents and advance through 0.6520 if it were to alleviate any bearish pressure, with further gains limited to 0.6585 in our session today.

Wall Street ended the day lower with all three indices driven by sector sell-offs in tech, financial, consumer discretionary and industrials all deflating market sentiment. The DJI fell -0.4%, the S&P500 lost -0.6% , as did the Nasdaq dropping -0.6% also. Australian shares are expected to open lower today, with commodity prices feeling the brunt following a disappointing China Manufacturing PMI release and as the vote to lift the US debt ceiling passes through the Congress.

Gold bullion prices edged higher despite some US-dollar strength, with markets regaining confidence over the US debt ceiling progress.

Copper prices drifted lower after China’s PMI’s showed a contraction in factory activity. Dalian Iron Ore prices were also weighed down by softer than expected China PMI’s yesterday, that revealed another monthly contraction in a row.

Crude Oil prices fell again over concerns for demand outlooks following softer PMI’s release from major consumer, China. Brent was down over a dollar by close.

The ‘in-principle’ agreement to the US debt ceiling deal gave markets some relief yesterday, with short-dated US bills dropping back in to line with current Fed policy rate expectations, but cautious optimism will prevail until the Bill officially passes through the House. The AUD gave back earlier session gains, tracking the Chinese Renminbi lower despite some renewed optimism for the developments in the US debt ceiling impasse. For the AUDUSD, gains once again were limited to the 0.6550’s break of last week and further gains will likely encounter further supply into 0.6575/80 on any advance. Support emerges at last weeks low of 0.6490’s. Ahead in our session today, we look to the Australian CPI inflation release for April, RBA Gov Lowes Testimony to the Senate and China PMI’s for May to steer markets , particularly if the latter shows improvement in the post lockdown recovery that has lately fallen short of investor expectations. Lowes comments may go some way to shaping the expectations for the RBA Policy meeting next week.

Wall Street ended the day in mixed fashion even though the Nasdaq rallied after Nvidia stocks jumped for another session of gains. Investors still remain on the defensive, as a handful of republicans say they are intending to oppose some of the conditions within the agreement to raise the US debt ceiling, frustrating the free-passage through the House. Australian shares are looking to open lower today with energy shares retreating on lower oil prices and concerns over some US lawmakers opposing the deal to raise the US debt ceiling.

Gold bullion prices lifted as the US-dollar retreated and US Treasuries slid back into line, with markets regaining confidence over the US debt ceiling progress.

Copper prices traded around six month lows ahead of the release of China’s PMI’s today which is expected to show a contraction in factory activity. Dalian Iron Ore prices gave back earlier session gains weighed down by pessimistic outlook for construction activity and other steel making ingredients.

Crude Oil prices gave up over 4% for the session as mixed messages from producers clouded the outlook ahead of the OPEC suppliers meeting this weekend.

More detail and clarity around the tentative agreement in Washington to suspend the debt ceiling should be fleshed out over the next 24hrs. The details are still subject to approval from both Houses of Congress, but House Speaker McCarthy and President Biden are confident that they will pass through. Optimism over the agreement is set to support risk assets and lift US Treasury yields along with the US-dollar. The AUDUSD has rebounded from its lows of last week, but has stalled in the mid-0.65’s as fresh challenges arise from China economic conditions which have faltered risk markets and commodity demand outlooks. A return of full trading markets, with northern hemisphere trading returning from Holiday closures, will provide a deeper response to how investors and traders will position for the debt ceiling outcomes and to how the US Fed will be expecting to play out the next interest rate meeting. For the AUDUSD, gains have been limited to the 0.6550’s break of last week and further gains will likely encounter further supply into 0.6575/80 today. Ahead in our session today, we look to the Australian Building Approvals release for April and Japanese employment numbers to entertain traders, but it will likely be further headlines relating to the US debt ceiling acceptance and its progress through the House, that continue to grab the limelight for markets.

Wall Street was closed for Memorial Day holiday, but stock futures have pointed to gains on the main bourse. Australian shares are looking to open on the defensive today as a handful of republicans say they are intending to oppose some of the conditions within the agreement to raise the US debt ceiling, frustrating the free-passage through the House and hurdles ahead.

Gold prices were mostly unchanged for the day as positive developments in the US debt ceiling negotiations eased investor concerns, as they now look ahead to the chances of the Fed raising rates at the next meeting.

The LME was closed due to the public holiday. Dalian Iron Ore prices extended gains as players refreshed expectations that new stimulus measures will be entertained in China after downbeat industrial profit data was released over the weekend.

Crude Oil prices enjoyed a choppy session as markets digested the in-principle agreement to the US debt ceiling deal and the prospect of the US Fed raising rate at their next meeting curbing energy demand.

The AUDUSD has opened Asia session today under pressure as US Treasury yields rise with expectations from traders that the Fed will be inclined to leave rates higher for longer while signs of a robust US economy and stubborn  inflation persists, leaving the market with diminishing expectations that the Fed will pause. House Speaker McCarthy and President Biden say that they will resolve their differences and the debt ceiling will be lifted, however, no agreement has yet been met. Some respite might be garnished for the Aussie after a relief rally ensues for commodities, but a spluttering China economy has been weighing on the AUDUSD in recent sessions. The Aussie is continuing its bearish stance as short term indicators remain for lower moves, though oversold signals are emerging. Gains have been limited to the 0.6550 break lower last week and gains will likely encounter supply at that level again today. The absence of any local data today for the antipodeans will leave investors to mull over the US Inflation numbers from Friday and any progress for the US debt ceiling negotiations. US markets will be closed for the Memorial Day holiday.

Wall Street stocks rallied on Friday in response to perceived progress on the US debt ceiling negotiations while AI sector related stocks also rallied for another session. The DJI gained 1% for the day, while the S&P climbed 1.3% and the Nasdaq closed higher again, 2.2%. Australian shares are looking to open higher today with developments around the negotiations for the US debt ceiling adding favour back to investor outlook.

Gold prices reversed some daily gains as hotter than expected US inflation gauge provided a lift for the US-dollar, and investors swing towards a higher for longer stance for the Fed on  interest rates. Spot Gold closed the week at $1943.12/ounce.

Base Metal prices posted some gains with Copper up 2.5%, however concerns remain over the outlook for demand from major consumer China. Dalian Iron Ore prices did find gains on Friday, but were overall lower for the week, as pessimism remains over steel demand in China and the prospect for sluggish demand from the construction industry.

Crude Oil prices were buoyed by what seemed to be progress in the US debt ceiling negotiations, while conflicting chatter from Russia and Saudi ahead of the next OPEC meeting, weighs on the market confidence.

The AUDUSD has retreated further in offshore trading, as risk sentiment remains on edge with another round of debt ceiling negotiations in Washington coming to nothing. House Speaker McCarthy says that negotiators are still working to resolve on a number of issues that remain. The AUDUSD pair has fallen to a fresh yearly low of 0.6498 in overnight trading. The Aussie is developing bearish momentum as short term indicators signal for lower moves, though oversold signals are emerging. Gains will be limited in the final sessions of the week, with selling interest arising on gains back above 0.6550’s today. Ahead we look to local Retail Sales that are expected to print a modest 0.3% gain for the month.

Wall Street stocks found favour as Nvidia posted a forecast smashing revenue outlook that had investors fueling a rally in AI related companies, while keeping vigil over the progress of US debt ceiling negotiations in Washington. The DJI however, lost -0.1% for the day, while the S&P climbed 0.9% and the Nasdaq surged higher 1.7%. Australian shares are looking to open flat today with softer commodity prices undermining the energy and mining sectors, while investors look for developments around the negotiations for the US debt ceiling.

Gold prices slipped to its lowest level in a couple of months, as optimism for progress in the debt ceiling talks lowered safe haven demand for bullion and better than expected US data provided a lift for the US-dollar as bets move for another US Fed rate hike. Spot Gold fell to $1939.97 at close.

Base Metal prices fell further for another day, with Zinc leading the way on increased warehouse reserves at exchange facilities rising to a surplus level. Dalian Iron Ore prices slipped to six month lows as pessimism remains over steel demand in China and the prospect for sluggish demand from the construction industry over the summer season.

Crude Oil prices caught the bearish trend from other commodities and slid $3 lower for the day, as Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, played down the prospect for further OPEC production cuts at the next meeting.

As risk sentiment capitulated, global stocks have tumbled with US debt ceiling negotiators not able to avoid the impasse that has held progress to ransom, over differences to spending between Democrats and Republicans in Washington.  The US-dollar has remained strong amid risk aversion and uncertainty, dragging the AUDUSD to a yearly low overnight at 0.6530’s. Added to that, the NZDUSD has tumbled 2.3% after the RBNZ raised rates by 25bp to 5.5%, but surprised markets by maintaining the outlook guidance at the at the same 5.5%, signaling the end to the tightening cycle. This has weighed additionally on the Aussie moves, though the AUDNZD has jumped by 150pts. The AUDUSD will be further interrupted by losses in metals prices, keeping it on the back-foot and trading at yearly lows. Overnight the release ofc the FOMC Minutes of the May meeting showed the uncertainty among policymakers as  to how much and how many more rate hikes to come. Aussie gains will be limited in the final sessions of the week, with the trend now for lower chasing into the 0.64-cents levels.

Wall Street stocks fell as US debt ceiling negotiations drag on without any advance. The DJI closed down -0.8% for the day, while the S&P fell -0.7% and the Nasdaq finished lower -0.6%. Australian shares are poised to follow Wall Street lower once again today as softer metals  prices undermine the mining sector and uncertainty ciculates around the negotiations for the US debt ceiling.

Gold prices slipped as the US-dollar gained and investors cut their safe-haven positions in the lustre metals, with uncertainty hanging over the debt ceiling negotiations and a review of the latest FOMC Minutes.

Copper prices fell for another day as the market responded to subdued demand from China and concerns over the global recessive outlook. Dalian Iron Ore prices slumped lower as pessimism continues circulate over the pace of the economic recovery in China.

Crude Oil prices continue to buck the trend and extended gains by more than a dollar for the day, with the Saudi Energy Minister casting a warning to speculators in very loose terms.