Market Watch
Fri Dec 08, 2023
Daily Insight
Market Watch
  • The US Dollar is muted across the board, but still getting under pressure against the Yen. The pair is now holding under 144 after touching 142.34 earlier in the session, as traders continue to bet on a policy tweak by the Bank of Japan this month. The Yen is set to post the largest weekly gain against the greenback since mid-July.
  • In the US, all eyes are on today’s Non-Farm Payrolls data where traders are expecting it will provide fresh evidence of a cooling labour market, which should help the Fed’s case to hold interest rates and potentially cut them in 2024.
  • The euro consolidates under 1.08 against the US Dollar while Cable gets hit, trading below 1.26, at 1.2566 as the market waits for US Jobs date to determine the next direction.
  • Oil is headed for the worst week of losses since 2018 as concerns increase about a global glut, with markets doubtful that deeper supply cuts by OPEC will be effective.
trends*
EUR   GBP
EUR
 / 
GBP
GBP   USD
GBP
 / 
USD
GBP   AUD
GBP
 / 
AUD
GBP   NZD
GBP
 / 
NZD
GBP   PLN
GBP
 / 
PLN
USD   JPY
USD
 / 
JPY
EUR   USD
EUR
 / 
USD
GBP   JPY
GBP
 / 
JPY
economic calendar
Fri Dec 08, 2023
01:30 pm
USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m
01:30 pm
USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
01:30 pm
USD - Unemployment Rate
03:00 pm
USD - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
03:00 pm
USD - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
Sat Dec 09, 2023
01:30 am
CNY - CPI y/y
01:30 am
CNY - PPI y/y
Market Indicators
HIGH
LOW
EUR/GBP
0.8584
0.8555
GBP/USD
1.2612
1.2545
GBP/AUD
1.9227
1.9051
GBP/NZD
2.0523
2.0372
GBP/PLN
5.0628
5.0431
USD/JPY
147.3100
141.7300
EUR/USD
1.0817
1.0756
GBP/JPY
185.0200
178.6700
DOW30
0
NDAQ100
0
SP500
0
FTSE100
0
DAX30
0
IBEX35
0
GOLD
0
BRENT OIL
0
Market Watch
Thu Dec 07, 2023
Daily Insight
Market Watch

·         US companies started to cut hiring in November, with the private sector reducing employees to the lowest level since 2022, adding further evidence that the job market is cooling. The key focus will now be on Friday’s Payrolls data.

·         Fed Policymakers now head to the final meeting of the year next week and no changes are expected to the federal funds rate.

·         The US Dollar is losing against major peers, with the Dollar Index trading lower at 104 following news out of Japan.

 

·         The Yen has rallied against all its peers after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stating that his job may become more challenging after year-end, and markets now bet on a 45% chance that the BOJ will terminate its negative interest rate policy this month.

·         This is the first-time the Governor makes comments that are not related with the need and motives for further easing.  The Yen strengthened 1% against the greenback with USD/JPY just breaking through 146, after starting the day above 147.

 

·         The euro consolidates mid 1.07-1.08 since yesterday with the ECB dovish tone leading the way. The central bank has finished its tightening policy unless data surprises arise, but markets have now priced 150bps of cuts for the upcoming year.  Next Resistance is seen at 1.0920 and next support around 1.0760.

 

·         BOE’s Governor Andrew Bailey still suggests that interest rate cuts are unlikely for the near future and reassures the need for interest rates to stay higher for longer. Concerns about the stickiness of inflation in the service sectors remain and Bailey expects CPI to be just below 4% by the end of the first quarter of 2024.

·         Cable trades at 1.2579, certainly benefiting from a weaker US Dollar, jumping from today’s low at 1.2546. Big support levels seen between 1.2470-80 and first resistance seen near 1.2750.

trends*
EUR   GBP
EUR
 / 
GBP
GBP   USD
GBP
 / 
USD
GBP   AUD
GBP
 / 
AUD
GBP   NZD
GBP
 / 
NZD
GBP   PLN
GBP
 / 
PLN
USD   JPY
USD
 / 
JPY
EUR   USD
EUR
 / 
USD
GBP   JPY
GBP
 / 
JPY
economic calendar
Thu Dec 07, 2023
08:00 am
CHF - Foreign Currency Reserves
01:30 pm
USD - Unemployment Claims
Fri Dec 08, 2023
09:03 am
CNY - New Loans
01:30 pm
USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m
01:30 pm
USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
01:30 pm
USD - Unemployment Rate
03:00 pm
USD - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
03:00 pm
USD - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
Sat Dec 09, 2023
01:30 am
CNY - CPI y/y
01:30 am
CNY - PPI y/y
Market Indicators
HIGH
LOW
EUR/GBP
0.8578
0.8554
GBP/USD
1.2613
1.2552
GBP/AUD
1.9233
1.9117
GBP/NZD
2.0556
2.0414
GBP/PLN
5.0714
5.0432
USD/JPY
147.5000
146.9000
EUR/USD
1.0804
1.0760
GBP/JPY
185.7900
185.0000
DOW30
0
NDAQ100
0
SP500
0
FTSE100
0
DAX30
0
IBEX35
0
GOLD
0
BRENT OIL
0
Market Watch
Wed Dec 06, 2023
Daily Insight
Market Watch

The USD continues to recover ground from the low point on Monday, with small support from the slightly stronger November ISM overnight (52.7 vs an expected 52.3). Later today we will see the ADP employment data which will be used as a measure leading into the important Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. GBP/USD has traded through 1.2600 during Asia which has been providing support over the last week only to move back through the level. EUR/USD continues to make new lows each day after the high of 1.1017 last week. The pair is currently at 1.0795.

The UK Services and Composite PMIs for November were both stronger than expected yesterday (50.9 vs 50.5 and 50.7 vs 50.1 respectively). The same trend has seen yesterday in the Eurozone across each of the major economies, Services PMI 48.7 vs 48.2 and Composite 47.6 vs 47.1. Today we will see the release of German Factory Orders with a 0.2% increase expected for October.

Moody’s Investor Service cut its outlook on Chinese Sovereign Bonds yesterday from stable to negative. The PBOC set a stronger fixing rate in the spot market today to prevent declines in the currency as a result. ECB board member Schnabel said another rate hike probably won’t happen following a “remarkable” slowdown in inflation. Schnabel has been viewed as both influential and hawkish of late. Yields traded lower on the comments (amount 8 basis points in the 2-year pillar) and the market is now pricing between five and six cuts by the central back over the year ahead.

trends*
EUR   GBP
EUR
 / 
GBP
GBP   USD
GBP
 / 
USD
GBP   AUD
GBP
 / 
AUD
GBP   NZD
GBP
 / 
NZD
GBP   PLN
GBP
 / 
PLN
USD   JPY
USD
 / 
JPY
EUR   USD
EUR
 / 
USD
GBP   JPY
GBP
 / 
JPY
economic calendar
Wed Dec 06, 2023
12:30 am
AUD - GDP q/q
09:30 am
GBP - Construction PMI
11:00 am
GBP - BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
01:15 pm
USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
03:00 pm
CAD - BOC Rate Statement
03:00 pm
CAD - Overnight Rate
03:00 pm
CAD - Ivey PMI
Thu Dec 07, 2023
08:00 am
CHF - Foreign Currency Reserves
01:30 pm
USD - Unemployment Claims
Fri Dec 08, 2023
09:03 am
CNY - New Loans
01:30 pm
USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m
01:30 pm
USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
01:30 pm
USD - Unemployment Rate
03:00 pm
USD - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
03:00 pm
USD - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
Sat Dec 09, 2023
01:30 am
CNY - CPI y/y
01:30 am
CNY - PPI y/y
Market Indicators
HIGH
LOW
EUR/GBP
0.8588
0.8573
GBP/USD
1.2651
1.2578
GBP/AUD
1.9263
1.9061
GBP/NZD
2.0586
2.0474
GBP/PLN
5.0394
5.0467
USD/JPY
147.3800
147.1700
EUR/USD
1.0847
1.0779
GBP/JPY
186.1700
185.0800
DOW30
0
NDAQ100
0
SP500
0
FTSE100
0
DAX30
0
IBEX35
0
GOLD
0
BRENT OIL
0
Market Watch
Mon Dec 04, 2023
Daily Insight
Market Watch

We hope you have found our expertly curated MarketWatch analysis useful in navigating the ever-changing FX landscape. To enhance our services and make sure you receive the most relevant and timely insights we have recently made some exciting updates to our newsletter.
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·         The month of November ended with a range of data suggesting the US economy is cooling at a fast pace leading to well-known Fed hawks changing their tone into a more dovish one in public remarks.

·         Inflation surprised to the downside, indicating that it is on track to the Fed’s 2% target – Monthly core inflation dropped to 0.2% in October and Annual Core PCE was released at 3.4%, below 3.7% FOMC forecast.

·         Treasuries rallied throughout last week on the soft data, and markets now price a 50% chance of a first rate cut in the first quarter of 2024.

·         Key data/events to watch this week in the US: JOLTS (Tue.); ISM Services (Tue.) is likely to keep cooling in November, but still expanding (greater than 50.0); Unemployment Rate (Fri.) is expected to increase to 4.0%; Non-Farm Payrolls (Fri.) is estimated to improve after the United Auto Workers strike was resolved.

 

·         The lack of confidence by investors in the Euro-area recovery is clear with EUR/USD struggling to keep above 1.10 last week, and dropping all the way towards 1.0860, where we currently sit. Last week’s CPI data confirmed that the ECB won’t be able to afford any further interest rate hikes, and the market now expects the central bank to hold and remain cautious, but swap markets expect the first 25 bp cut to be around April next year.

·         Key data/events to watch this week in the Euro-area: Germany Industrial Production MoM (Thu.), will offer better insight into the state of the country’s industry and if industrial production is stabilizing in 4Q23.

 

·         The Sterling is 0.3% lower against the greenback, trading near 1.2679, after crossing 1.27 on Friday.

·         Key data/events to watch this week in the UK: Major industrial train strikes are taking place this week, and on the data front there will not be much apart from PMI data (Tue.).

trends*
EUR   GBP
EUR
 / 
GBP
GBP   USD
GBP
 / 
USD
GBP   AUD
GBP
 / 
AUD
GBP   NZD
GBP
 / 
NZD
GBP   PLN
GBP
 / 
PLN
USD   JPY
USD
 / 
JPY
EUR   USD
EUR
 / 
USD
GBP   JPY
GBP
 / 
JPY
economic calendar
Mon Dec 04, 2023
07:30 am
CHF - CPI m/m
02:00 pm
EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks
11:30 pm
JPY - Tokyo Core CPI y/y
Tue Dec 05, 2023
01:45 am
CNY - Caixin Services PMI
03:30 am
AUD - Cash Rate
03:30 am
AUD - RBA Rate Statement
03:00 pm
USD - ISM Services PMI
03:00 pm
USD - JOLTS Job Openings
Wed Dec 06, 2023
12:30 am
AUD - GDP q/q
09:30 am
GBP - Construction PMI
11:00 am
GBP - BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
01:15 pm
USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
03:00 pm
CAD - BOC Rate Statement
03:00 pm
CAD - Overnight Rate
03:00 pm
CAD - Ivey PMI
Thu Dec 07, 2023
08:00 am
CHF - Foreign Currency Reserves
01:30 pm
USD - Unemployment Claims
Fri Dec 08, 2023
09:03 am
CNY - New Loans
01:30 pm
USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m
01:30 pm
USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
01:30 pm
USD - Unemployment Rate
03:00 pm
USD - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
03:00 pm
USD - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
Sat Dec 09, 2023
01:30 am
CNY - CPI y/y
01:30 am
CNY - PPI y/y
Market Indicators
HIGH
LOW
EUR/GBP
0.8634
0.8559
GBP/USD
1.2716
1.2615
GBP/AUD
1.9151
1.9023
GBP/NZD
2.0542
2.0441
GBP/PLN
5.0740
5.0384
USD/JPY
148.3400
146.6700
EUR/USD
1.0912
1.0830
GBP/JPY
187.5000
186.2200
DOW30
0
NDAQ100
0
SP500
0
FTSE100
0
DAX30
0
IBEX35
0
GOLD
0
BRENT OIL
0
Market Watch
Fri Dec 01, 2023
Daily Insight
Market Watch

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·         Month end related buying of the greenback helped steady the dollar index as traders continue to review data releases and mixed signals from Fed officials. After experiencing its worst month in a year, the dollar index steadied, pushing EURUSD towards the bottom of its recent range to trade around 1.09. Key data released yesterday showed that US Core PCE inflation eased in October, which could help to reassure both investors and the Fed that inflationary pressures will abate. After the Fed’s Waller signaled a dovish tone earlier this week, his San Francisco colleague Mary Daly yesterday said that interest rates are in a “very good place” to control inflation. However, she also suggested that she is not thinking about interest rate cuts and that it was too soon to say if hikes are finished. Recent Fed speak comes after the release of the Beige Book on Wednesday, which showed that US economic activity slowed in recent weeks as consumers pulled back on discretionary spending as higher interest rates take hold on household budgets. Markets will be hoping for fresh clues on the outlook for the US as we look forward to a key speech later today from Chairman Jerome Powell.

·         Both the pound and the single currency slipped a touch against the greenback yesterday, with the pound drifting on a lack of UK data and the euro dipping after the release of lower-than-expected inflation data. PMIs from the euro area and the US will be the main focus today, along with Powell’s speech with 1.0960 seen as initial resistance in EURUSD and on the downside support comes in at 1.0875 ahead of 1.0810.

trends*
EUR   GBP
EUR
 / 
GBP
GBP   USD
GBP
 / 
USD
GBP   AUD
GBP
 / 
AUD
GBP   NZD
GBP
 / 
NZD
GBP   PLN
GBP
 / 
PLN
USD   JPY
USD
 / 
JPY
EUR   USD
EUR
 / 
USD
GBP   JPY
GBP
 / 
JPY
economic calendar
Fri Dec 01, 2023
01:45 am
CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI
08:00 am
CHF - GDP q/q
11:30 am
EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks
01:30 pm
CAD - Employment Change
01:30 pm
CAD - Unemployment Rate
03:00 pm
USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI
03:00 pm
USD - ISM Manufacturing Prices
04:00 pm
USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks
07:00 pm
USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Market Indicators
HIGH
LOW
EUR/GBP
0.8649
0.8615
GBP/USD
1.2622
1.2604
GBP/AUD
1.9195
1.9069
GBP/NZD
2.0636
2.0489
GBP/PLN
5.0467
5.0535
USD/JPY
148.5100
148.2100
EUR/USD
1.0886
1.0880
GBP/JPY
187.5500
186.2500
DOW30
35,951.0000
SP500
4,568.0000
FTSE100
7,454.0000
Market Watch
Thu Nov 30, 2023
Daily Insight
Market Watch

·         The US dollar looks as if it will post its worst month in a year, with the dollar index set to decline 3.5% in November. Q3 GDP data released yesterday showed a rise of 5.2% annualized QoQ, showing inflation as trending lower with the market also reacting to mixed signals from Fed officials. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that he is growing increasingly confident that inflation is firmly on a downward path, however his Richmond colleague Thomas Barkin said that the Fed should keep the option of further interest rate hikes on the table. Cleveland’s Loretta Mester, who’s been calling for higher rates this year, said that policy is well positioned for the central bank to be nimble and respond appropriately to the evolving outlook. A further pause from officials is expected at the December 12-13 meeting, where rate setters will also provide further insight into the potential path of monetary policy throughout 2024.

·         EURUSD is currently consolidating in the mid 1.09’s after briefly breaching 1.10 earlier this week, as markets await the release of November’s euro area inflation report. Germany and Spain’s CPI’s both came in weaker than expected and markets forecast euro area headline inflation to fall again in November, despite some upward pressure from energy bills. French inflation data was released earlier this morning, falling below consensus to 3.8% and at the same time GDP data showed that the French economy unexpectedly shrank. A 0.1% expansion was forecast, however a contraction of 0.1% was released suggesting that the euro area’s second largest economy is succumbing to a broader slowdown. The single currency dropped on the data release, with swaps traders now fully pricing in a 0.25% ECB rate cut in April next year.

trends*
EUR   GBP
EUR
 / 
GBP
GBP   USD
GBP
 / 
USD
GBP   AUD
GBP
 / 
AUD
GBP   NZD
GBP
 / 
NZD
GBP   PLN
GBP
 / 
PLN
USD   JPY
USD
 / 
JPY
EUR   USD
EUR
 / 
USD
GBP   JPY
GBP
 / 
JPY
economic calendar
Thu Nov 30, 2023
01:30 am
CNY - Manufacturing PMI
01:30 am
CNY - Non-Manufacturing PMI
10:00 am
EUR - Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
10:00 am
EUR - CPI Flash Estimate y/y
10:15 am
All - OPEC-JMMC Meetings
01:30 pm
CAD - GDP m/m
01:30 pm
EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks
01:30 pm
USD - Core PCE Price Index m/m
01:30 pm
USD - Unemployment Claims
02:45 pm
USD - Chicago PMI
03:00 pm
USD - Pending Home Sales m/m
Market Indicators
HIGH
LOW
EUR/GBP
0.8664
0.8637
GBP/USD
1.2733
1.2665
GBP/AUD
1.9196
1.9072
GBP/NZD
2.0707
2.0501
GBP/PLN
5.0283
4.9891
USD/JPY
147.9000
146.6800
EUR/USD
1.1017
1.0961
GBP/JPY
187.5200
186.6500
DOW30
35,430.0000
SP500
4,551.0000
FTSE100
7,423.0000
Market Watch
Wed Nov 29, 2023
Daily Insight
Market Watch

We hope you have found our expertly curated MarketWatch analysis useful in navigating the ever-changing FX landscape. To enhance our services and make sure you receive the most relevant and timely insights we have recently made some exciting updates to our newsletter.
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·         Both the pound and euro posted further gains against the under-pressure US dollar yesterday, as markets ramp up bets that the Fed will be able to cut rates possibly even before the middle of 2024. EURUSD broke stubborn resistance to trade briefly above 1.10 with cable following in its wake to trade as high as 1.2733 before both pairs consolidated lower. Treasury yields fell and the dollar index dropped for a fifth day after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that policy is well positioned to return inflation to the central bank’s 2% goal, suggesting that rate setters may not need to hike interest rates any further and that there was a possibility for the Fed to adjust its funds rate lower in the coming months if inflation continues to ease. Discussions around rate cuts have been a taboo subject for Fed officials of late, so markets reacted favorably to his comments suggesting that if inflation trend continues for the next 3-5 months, then the Fed can start cutting rates. Waller is historically one of the Feds most hawkish officials, and his comments come ahead of the release of the Fed’s Beige book later today and a key speech from Chairman Jerome Powell.  

·         There is the potential for additional volatility in the single currency, with month end related flows continuing ahead of key inflation data releases from the euro area in the coming days. The previous resistance level of 1.0960 becomes fresh support in EURUSD, with intraday resistance coming in at 1.1017 ahead of 1.1065 which was the August 10 high.

trends*
EUR   GBP
EUR
 / 
GBP
GBP   USD
GBP
 / 
USD
GBP   AUD
GBP
 / 
AUD
GBP   NZD
GBP
 / 
NZD
GBP   PLN
GBP
 / 
PLN
USD   JPY
USD
 / 
JPY
EUR   USD
EUR
 / 
USD
GBP   JPY
GBP
 / 
JPY
economic calendar
Wed Nov 29, 2023
12:30 am
AUD - CPI y/y
01:00 am
NZD - Official Cash Rate
01:00 am
NZD - RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
01:00 am
NZD - RBNZ Rate Statement
02:00 am
NZD - RBNZ Press Conference
07:29 am
EUR - German Prelim CPI m/m
08:00 am
EUR - Spanish Flash CPI y/y
01:30 pm
USD - Prelim GDP q/q
01:30 pm
USD - Prelim GDP Price Index q/q
03:05 pm
GBP - BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
Market Indicators
HIGH
LOW
EUR/GBP
0.8683
0.8655
GBP/USD
1.2714
1.2608
GBP/AUD
1.9129
1.9063
GBP/NZD
2.0751
2.0662
GBP/PLN
5.0218
4.9849
USD/JPY
148.8300
147.3300
EUR/USD
1.1008
1.0935
GBP/JPY
187.8700
187.0800
DOW30
35,417.0000
SP500
4,555.0000
FTSE100
7,455.0000
Market Watch
Tue Nov 28, 2023
Daily Insight
Market Watch

·         Another day, another drop in the dollar, with greenback losing further ground against its G10 peers as the dollar index fell to its lowest level since August. The post US CPI fall continues, further influenced by month end flows which helped USDJPY fall towards 148. EURUSD is little changed, again consolidating in the mid 1.09’s after attempting to break higher, with the pair running into resistance around 1.0960. GBPUSD continues to trade within its recent range on a 1.26 handle, after attempting to follow EURUSD higher the pair again met resistance around 1.2640.

·         In an interview yesterday, Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey suggested that UK interest rate cuts are unlikely for the “foreseeable future” and warned that the next round of the battle against inflation will be “hard work.” Whilst saying that the recent drop in inflation was “very good news” he cautioned that it is unlikely to be repeated. Inflation is still considerably above the central bank’s target and the governor, and his Chief Economist Huw Pill have highlighted the ongoing risk of sticky inflation, confirming that the MPC would be forced to hike again should inflation pressures return.

·         Early rate cuts from the ECB are also looking unlikely, with Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel saying that the central bank is not yet at a point where it should consider reducing borrowing costs. In an interview he said, “It would be premature to lower interest rates soon or to speculate about such steps.” We will learn more about the inflationary environment in the euro area in the coming days with the release of October’s inflation report, but it is looking safe to assume that the central bank has concluded its rate hiking campaign and will deliver a second consecutive pause at next month’s policy meeting.  

trends*
EUR   GBP
EUR
 / 
GBP
GBP   USD
GBP
 / 
USD
GBP   AUD
GBP
 / 
AUD
GBP   NZD
GBP
 / 
NZD
GBP   PLN
GBP
 / 
PLN
USD   JPY
USD
 / 
JPY
EUR   USD
EUR
 / 
USD
GBP   JPY
GBP
 / 
JPY
economic calendar
Tue Nov 28, 2023
12:30 am
AUD - Retail Sales m/m
01:18 am
AUD - RBA Gov Bullock Speaks
02:00 pm
USD - S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
03:00 pm
USD - CB Consumer Confidence
03:00 pm
USD - Richmond Manufacturing Index
03:05 pm
USD - FOMC Member Waller Speaks
Market Indicators
HIGH
LOW
EUR/GBP
0.8688
0.8658
GBP/USD
1.2644
1.2592
GBP/AUD
1.9187
1.9104
GBP/NZD
2.0789
2.0687
GBP/PLN
5.0332
5.0087
USD/JPY
149.6700
148.5500
EUR/USD
1.0958
1.0926
GBP/JPY
188.5200
187.6300
DOW30
35,333.0000
SP500
4,550.0000
FTSE100
7,436.0000
Market Watch
Mon Nov 27, 2023
Daily Insight
Market Watch

We hope you have found our expertly curated MarketWatch analysis useful in navigating the ever-changing FX landscape. To enhance our services and make sure you receive the most relevant and timely insights we have recently made some exciting updates to our newsletter.
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·         The US dollar is little changed as we head towards month end, with the dollar index treading water after falling at the end of last week. EURUSD is consolidating in the mid 1.09-1.10 range and GBPUSD starts the week holding steady above 1.26, with USDJPY falling below 149.

·         Month end activity is likely to influence markets in the coming days with very little on the European data calendar. Inflation data across the euro area is released towards the middle of the week with Spain and Germany releasing the November HICP data Wednesday, ahead of the same for France and Italy on Thursday. The CPI inflation print for the euro area is also released on Thursday, with markets expecting November’s print to fall to 2.6% from the previous 2.9%. A broad-based deceleration in inflation during November is expected, which will likely further boost market confidence of a further hold from the ECB at the final policy meeting of the year on December 14.

·         We will look for fresh clues on the strength of the US outlook this week as markets price a soft landing for the economy. Data due in the coming days includes consumer confidence on Tuesday and third quarter GDP on Wednesday where a small upward revision is expected. Thursday sees the release of the Fed’s preferred price gauge with the release of Personal Income and Spending data. The week is wrapped up with ISM Manufacturing survey which is out on Friday.

trends*
EUR   GBP
EUR
 / 
GBP
GBP   USD
GBP
 / 
USD
GBP   AUD
GBP
 / 
AUD
GBP   NZD
GBP
 / 
NZD
GBP   PLN
GBP
 / 
PLN
USD   JPY
USD
 / 
JPY
EUR   USD
EUR
 / 
USD
GBP   JPY
GBP
 / 
JPY
economic calendar
Mon Nov 27, 2023
02:00 pm
EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks
03:00 pm
USD - New Home Sales
Market Indicators
HIGH
LOW
EUR/GBP
0.8707
0.8672
GBP/USD
1.2615
1.2525
GBP/AUD
1.9157
1.9092
GBP/NZD
2.0736
2.0688
GBP/PLN
5.0413
5.0156
USD/JPY
149.7100
149.2100
EUR/USD
1.0948
1.0896
GBP/JPY
188.6500
187.1200
DOW30
35,390.0000
SP500
4,559.0000
FTSE100
7,488.0000

*The arrows indicate how the base currency performed against the counter currency overnight. This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.