Market Watch APAC – 16th February 2024
As has been the case for much of currency trading this week, it has been about the US-dollar reactions to economic data and Fed commentary for direction. The US-dollar fell overnight in reaction to the far weaker than expected US January Retail Sales but showed some recovery after analysts decided there were seasonal adjustments to the print. Currency majors and the AUDUSD have all posted gains, the latter back through the swing point at 0.65-cents and cleared some of the supply above. Yesterday’s release of the Australian Employment data was weaker than anticipated with just 500 new jobs added against an expected 30k rise, while the unemployment rate was up at 4.1%, which was higher than the 3.9% for December. With the RBA continuing to reiterate that rate decisions are data dependent, this latest addition would support the Bank’s position to ease later in the year. Gains overnight have been met with supply above 0.65-cents, but if momentum rolls over to the Asia session we could see an advance through 0.6530/35 to nudge next resistance at 0.6550’s. Any retreat will look for 0.6480 where a failure to hold could allow for a retest of the 0.6440/45 support. China markets are still closed for the Lunar New Year holidays today.
Wall Street and global stocks rallied after the release of the US Retail Sales, that declined more than expected, prompting investors to anticipate an earlier rate cut from the US Fed in coming months. DJI was up +0.7%, the S&P500 also added +0.5 %, and the Nasdaq picked up +0.2% over the session. Australian shares are set to open higher today, following Wall Street moves and a lift in the commodity sectors, while investors assess corporate earnings, economic data and central bank commentary.
Gold prices nudged higher following the softer US Retail Sales print, as the shift out of US-dollars and US Treasuries favoured the lustre metals.
Copper prices returned gains for the day as the US-dollar eased and reversed previous session losses. The LME was up 1.4% at session close. The Dalian commodities exchange remains closed for Chinese Lunar New Year Holidays. Singapore Iron Ore futures traded firmer, up 0.2%.
Brent Crude prices rebounded from earlier session losses after the US-dollar pullback, but gains were limited by an International Energy Agency report that highlight a slowing in demand for much of this year. Brent was trading up 1.4% near $82.80/bbl for the session.
| AUDUSD
Open today 0.6525 Yesterday’s Range 0.6478 / 0.6529 |
NZDUSD
Open today 0.6106 Yesterday’s Range 0.6080 / 0.6127 |
AUDNZD
Yesterday’s Range 1.0648 / 1.0686 |
| AUDEUR
Yesterday’s Range 0.6039 / 0.6062 |
AUDCNH
Yesterday’s Range 4.6814 / 4.7116 |
AUDGBP
Yesterday’s Range 0.5156 / 0.5191 |
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