Market Watch AU – 12th February 2024
The AUDUSD pair has held its ground going in to the weekend after trading positive in Friday’s sessions, assisted by the RBA’s hawkish stance and RBA Michele Bullock’s comments that the central bank could still hike rates to lower inflation. Traders have been adjusting their policy prospects for the Fed and the RBA, as both are now likely to delay rate cuts. For markets this week the US will release their latest monthly inflation data, which is expected to be around +0.2% for January, down from 0.3% in December, while closer to home, we get a look at the Employment data and Retail Sales, where another decline in employment numbers might raise expectations of an RBA rate cut. From a technical perspective the Aussie remains in a bearish trend, however, the decline has paused and traders will await further data for to measure the extent of the moves. The AUDUSD should find initial support at 0.6470/80 zone, and resistance to continue at 0.6535/50 area on any strength. Of note is China Golden week, closing their markets for the week, along with a number of other Asia centres also on holidays, that is expected to dampen activity.
Wall Street stock indices saw the S&P500 close above 5,000 and the Nasdaq trade briefly over 16,000 as investors re-ignite their expectations on Artificial Intelligence as well as another round of strong quarterly earnings releases from leading corporates. The DJI was down -0.1%, the S&P500 higher +0.6%, and the Nasdaq strided higher by +1.3% over the session. Australian shares are set to open with a muted start to the week, awaiting further data releases from the US and locally for hints on next policy directions.
Gold prices were down -0.5% on Friday as US Treasury yields remined elevated, on the diminishing hopes for an early rate cut from the Fed, though the inflation data on Tuesday may offer some further insight.
Copper prices ended lower for the day as traders preferred to place bearish bets on the base metal to close out the week. Singapore Iron ore futures traded firmer on Friday as seabourne prices recovered, but still remain cautious on rising portside inventories and shaky expectations from China authorities to support their economy.
Brent Crude prices added another +0.7% for the day and up around 6% for the week, as concerns for supply remain prevalent due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Open today 0.6523
Yesterday’s Range 0.6488 / 0.6534
Open today 0.6139
Yesterday’s Range 0.6091 / 0.6158
Yesterday’s Range 1.0586 / 1.0659
Yesterday’s Range 0.6021 / 0.6054
Yesterday’s Range 4.6813 / 4.7147
Yesterday’s Range 0.5142 / 0.5172
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