Market Watch AU – 29th January 2024
Markets, this week, will be dominated by the US Fed meeting and Jerome Powell’s pressor that follows, for whether the Federal Reserve will add any guidance as to whether they will start cutting rates soon. Robust GDP releases and low inflation have managed to provide further evidence that the US economy is headed for a soft landing. Asia trading will be directed by China and its latest PMI data, which is expected to remain contractionary though marginally higher for December at 49.3. Beijing is expected to continue to support its economy, the latest move by the Securities regulator suspending restricted share lending from today. The AUDUSD has struggled to maintain gains into the close for the week and leaves the door open for more pull back should negative sentiment prevail. So the pair opens today on a cautious footing from macro factors while local data releases this week will include Retail Sales on Tuesday and Dec and Q4 CPI on Wednesday offering collective information for the RBA and its expectations. Initial support at 0.6550/55 on any pullback, with rallies to find resistance and supply through 0.6610/20 once again.
Wall Street saw the S&P500 ease as Intel offered a lower revenue forecast than was expected. The DJI was just ahead at +0.1% over the session, while the S&P500 lost -0.07%, and the Nasdaq was down -0.4% for the day. Australian shares are set to open firm today while the focus remains on the US Fed meeting later this week and hints for possible policy changes in the months ahead.
Gold prices traded steady on Friday as investors turned their attention to the US Fed meeting later this week where it is hoped that the Committee would shed light on the interest rate outlook.
Copper prices eased for the day on Friday as traders took profits all the while they considered whether the latest measures by Beijing were going to be enough to support their economy. LME prices eased -0.3% into the close. Dalian Iron ore futures eased, though were holding some weekly gains, as traders maintained some confidence that the optimism for China policy will be sufficient to support its ailing economy.
Brent Crude prices held on to gains, underpinned by positive US economic growth and China stimulus measures for their economy, all the while geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East adding to the softer supply outlook.
Open today 0.6585
Yesterday’s Range 0.6567 / 0.6609
Open today 0.6102
Yesterday’s Range 0.6089 / 0.6121
Yesterday’s Range 1.0768 / 1.0808
Yesterday’s Range 0.6054 / 0.6086
Yesterday’s Range 4.7216 / 4.7471
Yesterday’s Range 0.5174 / 0.5193
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