Market Watch AU – 13th February 2024
The AUDUSD traded steadily above the 0.65-cent level yesterday, in part supported by a better day for commodities that have been suffering of late and largely due to holiday thinned Asia markets. The US-dollar is steady ahead of the release of the US monthly inflation data, due out tonight, which is expected to be around +0.2% for January, down from 0.3% in December. While the Fed is on board for rate cuts this year, they continue to push back on the prospect of market expectations of any time soon. The odds for a March cut have slipped right back to just 15% chance priced in. Today in Australia we get a read on the latest Westpac Consumer confidence and the NAB Business confidence numbers but await the Employment data and Retail Sales later in the week, where another decline in employment numbers might raise expectations of an RBA rate cut. The Aussie has been running into selling interest at the 0.6535/50 level over recent sessions with marginally higher highs at each attempt. The AUDUSD should continue to challenge the resistance into 200dma area at 0.6570 on any strength, but a break of 0.6470/90 zone would tempt lower. China holiday week continues, along with a number of other Asia centres also on holidays, and is likely to dampen activity.
Wall Street and global stock indices edged higher ahead of the US CPI report due out tonight which may provide some clue for investors as to when the Fed may be ready to cut rates. The Nasdaq however after having a solid run on Friday, returned some of the gains in Monday’s session The DJI was up +0.5%, the S&P500 edged higher +0.1%, and the Nasdaq retreated -0.1% over the session. Australian shares are set to open higher today, supported by higher Iron Ore prices, though investors are remaining attentive to further data releases from the US and locally for hints on next policy directions.
Gold prices eased -0.2% on Monday, as US FOMC speakers took to the news wires ahead of the US CPI release later today.
Copper prices rebounded on the LME and US futures market as traders and speculators squared up short positions ahead of US Inflation data release tonight.
Brent Crude prices took a breather on Monday and returned some of last weeks gains, However, concerns for supply remain prevalent due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Open today 0.6531
Yesterday’s Range 0.611 / 0.6543
Open today 0.6131
Yesterday’s Range 0.6120 / 0.6152
Yesterday’s Range 1.0597 / 1.0659
Yesterday’s Range 0.6037 / 0.6069
Yesterday’s Range 4.7014 / 4.7202
Yesterday’s Range 0.5155 / 0.5177
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