Marketwatch APAC

Daily Insights
February 5, 2024

Market Watch AU – 6th February 2024


The US-dollar continued to surge to an eleven week high as traders wound back their expectations for a Fed rate cut any time soon. The US ISM Services Index showed new orders had increased over January and added to the positive sentiment from the US Jobs report last Friday, pushing US Treasuries and US dollar into favour.  A Fed funds cut by March this year has diminished to a mere 14.5% chance. Fundamentally, the repricing of the Fed policy implies a higher US-dollar and Treasury yields and thus adding pressure to the G10 currencies. The RBA rate decision and statement today, may give the Aussie some temporary lift, though no change is widely expected, leaving the AUDUSD pair to continue its broader downtrend. China’s property sector woes and equity rout continue to reflect the markets lack of confidence in their economic outlook, just adding to the considerations for Aussie. So downunder today, we remain attentive to the RBA Meeting announcements, as traders continue to look for support levels on the AUDUSD after a deterioration through 0.65-cents, with preference to sell the fade to 0.6530’s now favoured. Of note also, is that the RBA has changed the number of board meetings for 2024, from 11 to just 8, with officials looking to have more time to assess economic developments between meetings.

Wall Street stocks slipped lower for the opening session of the week, succumbing to the pressure of rising Treasury yields after US Fed chief, Jerome Powell, doused market speculation that interest rate cuts were imminent. By mid afternoon, the DJI was down -0.6% for the session, while the S&P500 lower by -0.2%, and the Nasdaq also down -0.2% during the session.  Australian shares are looking to trade further lower today, weighed down by commodities and as investors turn to the RBA meeting and their outlook on interest rate directions.

Gold prices are further lower as US Treasury yields continue to firm and the US-dollar gaining with them, seeing investors pushing back the prospect of Fed rate cuts soon, on the back of the better than expected US employment numbers last Friday.

Copper prices fell on the LME as the US-dollar rallied, while concerns over global industrial activity and China demand continues to weigh down the outlook. Dalian Iron ore futures traded further lower, as traders continue to weigh up China demand as they tackle their property sector woes and portside inventories rise.

Brent Crude prices posted daily gains, with supply concerns re-emerging due to the tensions around the Middle East and those between Russia and Ukraine.



Open today 0.6483

Yesterday’s Range 0.6469 / 0.6524


Open today  0.6055

Yesterday’s Range 0.6038 / 0.6082


Yesterday’s Range 1.0706 / 1.0756


Yesterday’s Range 0.6023 / 0.6051


Yesterday’s Range 4.6728 / 4.7028


Yesterday’s Range 0.5145 / 0.5175


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Economic Calendar

GBP - BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
AUD - Cash Rate
AUD - RBA Rate Statement
AUD - RBA Monetary Policy Statement
AUD - RBA Press Conference
EUR - German Factory Orders m/m
GBP - Construction PMI
EUR - Retail Sales m/m
CAD - Building Permits m/m
NZD - GDT Price Index
CAD - Ivey PMI
USD - RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism
USD - FOMC Member Mester Speaks
CAD - BOC Gov Macklem Speaks
NZD - Employment Change q/q
NZD - Unemployment Rate
NZD - Labor Cost Index q/q

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
aud/usd 0.652 0.64685
nzd/usd 0.60818 0.60381
aud/nzd 1.07416 1.07056
usd/jpy 148.89 148.264
usd/cad 1.35437 1.34492
eur/usd 1.07862 1.07231
gbp/usd 1.26352 1.25181
aud/eur 1.66013 1.65126
aud/jpy 96.746 96.211
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 4941.81
DOW 38352.1
Nasdaq 100 17622.8
ASX200 7614.98
GOLD 2024.77
WTI 72.84

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.