Market Watch AU – 15th December 2023
The AUDUSD certainly consolidated its gains in yesterday’s session, hitting a four month high after local labour force numbers beat the market expectations and the US-dollar tumbles after the US central bank fuelled a risk rally. Employment data for Australia exceeded expectations with total employment jumping by 61.5k, versus the expected figure of 11k. The unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 3.9% due to a rise in the participation rate, which reached a record high. This puts the RBA on notice for another possible rate hike in February. Also overnight, the Bank of England , the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank all left their cash rate on hold, however, pushed back on the notion of rate cut calls. The AUDUSD pair once again finds itself in familiar congestion level over 0.67-cents and will look to keep consolidating gains and targeting to the upper channel level at 0.6770. Any pull back should find support at 0.6615/20 and then 0.6550 behind.
Wall Street stocks lost momentum across the session as investors recycled out of momentum growth stocks due to the US Fed’s revision of interest rate outlooks for next year. The DJI was up +0.2%, the S&P500 gained +0.1% and the Nasdaq dropped -0.05% by close. Australian shares look to open higher with enthusiasm for an improved outlook for 2024 as the US central bank hints at cheaper borrowing costs ahead.
Gold prices continue their gains as US-dollar slips lower, along with US Treasury yields, on the back of the revised US Fed outlook.
Copper prices were in ‘catch-up’ mode making the gains it missed from the previous session due to a weaker US-dollar after the US-Fed meeting following revelations that the central bank expects cheaper lending conditions in 2024. Iron Ore futures on the Dalian exchange declined further as the market digests the lack of new China stimulus measures and data showing weaker than expected bank lending last month.
Crude Oil prices were up considerably for the day, adding to previous session gains, as the IEA lifted its oil demand forecast for next year and the US-dollar declined.
Open today 0.6699
Yesterday’s Range 0.6655 / 0.6729
Open today 0.6206
Yesterday’s Range 0.6170 / 0.6249
Yesterday’s Range 1.0755 / 1.0816
Yesterday’s Range 0.6090 / 0.6170
Yesterday’s Range 4.7513 / 4.8023
Yesterday’s Range 0.5246 / 0.5320
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