Market Watch AU – 30th November 2023
In trading yesterday, the AUDUSD retreated after the latest Australian CPI data showed inflation slowed more than market expectations. The CPI rose by 4.9%, against the analyst expectations of 5.2%, and corrected the AUDUSD lower but still holding ground over 0.66-cents. Overnight, the release of the US GDP data showed their economy had expended better than expected and gave the US-dollar a lift, that in turn limited the recovery for the Aussie. The NZD got a boost yesterday after the RBNZ held OCR rates at 5.5%, but added unexpectedly that it may be necessary to raise the cash rate if inflation does not moderate. The AUDNZD tumbled back below 1.08-figure and the Kiwi rallied over 0.62-cents in response. There is an abundance of Asia regional data and Central Bank meetings today, that will keep traders ‘on their toes’ and shape their appetite for higher yielding assets. In Australia we look for the release of Private Sector Credit conditions, though not usually a market mover. Technically the AUDUSD is still trending higher, so analysts will be hoping for some consolidation of recent moves with support at 0.6575/85 on any pull back, however the RSI’s are rolling over and may suggest there is further correction into the support zone before the next advance resumes.
Global and Wall Street stock indices ended the day with a positive tilt, after US-GDP report was released and showed a rise to 5.2% annualized QoQ. It also showed inflation as trending lower with slight downward revisions to measures monitored by the Fed in setting policy. Investors are starting to factor in policy revisions for next year, though comments from Fed officials still comes with a mixed tone. The DJI ended higher by +0.2%, the S&P500 gained +0.1% and the Nasdaq ended just in the black up +0.05%. Australian shares are expected to open higher again today, with the energy sector favoured for rising Oil prices ahead of the OPEC+ meeting and technology sector shares could get inspiration from Wall Street moves.
Gold prices held on to previous session gains near seven month highs as investors ponder the outlook for the Fed after the latest round of GDP quarterly data.
Copper prices softened in response to a firmer US-dollar and concerns for China’s economy today, with front month contracts easing -0.6% for the session. Iron Ore prices on the Dalian exchange continued their retreat, as Chinese authorities campaign to monitor prices and seen to intervene in the market to restrict price rallies.
Crude Oil prices added another $1/bbl for the day, as investors traded on the assumption that OPEC+ meeting would deliver further production cuts to supply and despite a jump in US gasoline and distillate stockpiles.
Open today 0.6617
Yesterday’s Range 0.6606 / 0.6676
Open today 0.6156
Yesterday’s Range 0.6132 / 0.6208
Yesterday’s Range 1.0723 / 1.0840
Yesterday’s Range 0.6022 / 0.6060
Yesterday’s Range 4.7189 / 4.7503
Yesterday’s Range 0.5209 / 0.5244
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