Marketwatch APAC

Daily Insights
November 14, 2023

Market Watch AU – 15th November 2023

The US-dollar has tumbled against a basket of major currencies following the release of US Consumer Price (CPI) for October which showed that the pace of inflation in the nation is moderating and underpins market expectations that the US Fed is done with further rate hikes. US Treasury yields have fallen, with the 10yr bond falling below the 4.5% yield  which has been a key reason for US-dollar strength for the most part of this year. The AUDUSD has rallied strongly, posting an over 2% gain and reaching a session high at 0.6512. More broadly, risk appetite has improved with equities and commodities all back in favour for investors. Locally today we look for the Wage Price Index release for Q3, but trading will mostly be dominated by the weaker US-dollar and if this continues, may be a catalyst for further gains on the antipodeans. The AUDUSD looks to challenge the 0.6520/25 where it has peaked four times since August, while initial support now shifts to 0.6440 on any intra-day retreat. Traders are still watching the JPY and speculation as to whether BoJ will intervene to limit the depreciation of their currency against the USD.

Wall Street equities ended the day much higher, led by tech sector gains that were spurred on by a softer than expected read for US CPI for October, suggesting the Fed is now done with rate rises. The DJI rose +1.4%, the S&P500 rallied 1.9% and the Nasdaq gained 2.2%. Following the offshore activities and the moves on global bourses, Australian shares are expected to open higher today, underpinned by favourable moves on international bourses and commodity prices.

Gold prices rallied 1% higher as the US-dollar and US Treasuries retreated following the release of a softer CPI read, prompting investors to shift expectations further towards the likelihood that the US Fed will be done with raising rates in this cycle.

Copper prices trade higher in response to a weaker US-dollar after the US CPI release. LME Copper contracts were trading up +0.7% at close. Dalian Iron Ore prices finished a tad higher ,  as traders measured the overall stimulus measures in China and a drop in shipments, against waning demand for steel.

Brent Crude Oil prices continued their positive trajectory after the International Energy Agency (IEA) lifted its demand forecasts and the US-dollar retreated after the release of US CPI.



Open today 0.6507

Yesterday’s Range 0.6361 / 0.6512


Open today  0.6008

Yesterday’s Range 0.5860 / 0.6013


Yesterday’s Range 1.0820 / 1.0899


Yesterday’s Range 0.5937 / 0.5985


Yesterday’s Range 4.6448 / 4.7219


Yesterday’s Range 0.5173 / 0.5208


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Economic Calendar

AUD - Wage Price Index q/q
CNY - Industrial Production y/y
CNY - Retail Sales y/y
CNY - Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y
CNY - NBS Press Conference
CNY - Unemployment Rate
JPY - Revised Industrial Production m/m
EUR - German WPI m/m
GBP - CPI y/y
GBP - Core CPI y/y
GBP - PPI Input m/m
GBP - PPI Output m/m
GBP - RPI y/y
EUR - French Final CPI m/m
GBP - HPI y/y
EUR - Industrial Production m/m
EUR - Trade Balance
EUR - EU Economic Forecasts
EUR - German 30-y Bond Auction
CAD - Manufacturing Sales m/m
CAD - Wholesale Sales m/m
USD - Core PPI m/m
USD - Core Retail Sales m/m
USD - Empire State Manufacturing Index
USD - PPI m/m
USD - Retail Sales m/m
USD - FOMC Member Barr Speaks
USD - Business Inventories m/m
USD - Crude Oil Inventories
GBP - MPC Member Haskel Speaks
JPY - Core Machinery Orders m/m
JPY - Trade Balance

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
aud/usd 0.65123 0.63534
nzd/usd 0.60131 0.5858
aud/nzd 1.08679 1.08004
usd/jpy 151.784 150.023
usd/cad 1.38433 1.3671
eur/usd 1.08872 1.06928
gbp/usd 1.25058 1.22654
aud/eur 1.68405 1.66939
aud/jpy 97.944 96.257
Equities and Commodities
S&P 500 4501.86
DOW 34861.1
Nasdaq 100 15836.8
ASX200 7095.17
GOLD 1963.1
WTI 78.23

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.