Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
April 19, 2024

  • The US dollar posted gains yesterday with the dollar index rallying after the release of the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, which rose to its highest level in two years. Markets remain cautious of the notoriously volatile series, but the greenback gained with the survey coming in at 15.5 against the previous 3.2 and expectations of 2.0. Weekly initial claims also beat estimates suggesting a labor market that is moderating with a low level of layoffs.
  • The recent tone of Fedspeak continued yesterday with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic saying that he is comfortable keeping interest rates steady, reiterating that he doesn’t think it will be appropriate to reduce rates until towards the end of the year. “Inflation is high – it’s too high – and we need to get it to our 2% target” he said, adding, “I’m comfortable being patient.” His comments back up recent central bank officials, including Chairman Powell, who earlier this week said that persistent inflation means it will likely take longer than previously thought to gain enough confidence to lower borrowing costs. The market continues to price just one to two cuts from the FOMC in 2024 – a considerable shift from the six to seven cuts expected at the start of the year.
  • UK Retail Sales data released this morning disappointingly stalled in March, with consumers scaling back on purchases, providing further evidence of a lackluster recovery from last year’s recession. Ongoing high inflation triggered a fall in food sales and high prices recorded on the High Street kept shoppers away as consumers struggle to recover from a cost-of-living crisis. Lower inflation and interest rate cuts are on the horizon, but consumers are yet to feel these effects in their household finances.

Economic Calendar

EUR - German PPI m/m
GBP - Retail Sales m/m
CNY - Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
GBP - MPC Member Breeden Speaks
GBP - MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
All - IMF Meetings
GBP - MPC Member Mann Speaks
EUR - German Buba President Nagel Speaks
USD - FOMC Financial Stability Report

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85696 0.85565
gbp/usd 1.2436 1.23889
gbp/aud 1.9481 1.93562
gbp/nzd 2.11721 2.10612
usd/jpy 154.67 153.584
eur/usd 1.06445 1.06103
gbp/jpy 192.267 190.295
eur/cnh 7.72107 7.6974
usd/cnh 7.26293 7.24467
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 17229.6
DOW 37499.2
S&P 500 4969.59
WTI 84.5
GOLD 2383.28

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.