Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
January 12, 2024

  • flag united states 1f1fa 1f1f8Yesterday’s eagerly awaited US CPI inflation report showed that prices edged up in December, a reminder that prices pressure remain in the US economy. The index rose 0.3 month over month and 3.4% year over year in December, higher than the respective estimates of 0.2% and 3.2%. The print followed a soft November release and pushed the dollar index to a five day high before reversing. Both GBPUSD and EURUSD gained after the data release but remain below the psychological 1.28 and 1.10 respectively. This afternoon the attention shifts back to the US as we await the release of December PPI as investors search for further clues on the inflation outlook for the US and an indication of just when the Fed will be able to start reducing interest rates.
  • flag united kingdom 1f1ec 1f1e7Data released this morning showed that the UK economy enjoyed a modest rebound in November, leaving the odds of a technical recession on a knife edge. GDP rose 0.3% in November, bouncing from a drop of the same magnitude in October, and above the 0.2% consensus. The data shows that the UK needs a flat December print to avoid a contraction, leaving the country close to stagnation at the start of an election year. Persistent inflation and high interest rates continue to weigh on the UK, however the outlook for 2024 appears a little less gloomy with many economists upgrading their growth forecasts on the back of an improved inflation outlook and hopes that the BoE will soon be able to lower interest rates. The pound pretty much shrugged off the data, holding above support at 1.2750 with 1.28 the next target on the upside.

Economic Calendar

CNY - CPI y/y
CNY - PPI y/y
CNY - Trade Balance
CNY - USD-Denominated Trade Balance
JPY - 30-y Bond Auction
JPY - Economy Watchers Sentiment
GBP - GDP m/m
GBP - Construction Output m/m
GBP - Goods Trade Balance
GBP - Index of Services 3m/3m
GBP - Industrial Production m/m
GBP - Manufacturing Production m/m
EUR - French Consumer Spending m/m
EUR - French Final CPI m/m
CNY - New Loans
CNY - M2 Money Supply y/y
GBP - NIESR GDP Estimate
USD - Core PPI m/m
USD - PPI m/m

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85979 0.859
gbp/usd 1.27844 1.27648
gbp/aud 1.90788 1.90347
gbp/nzd 2.04743 2.04208
usd/jpy 145.405 144.844
eur/usd 1.09852 1.09687
gbp/jpy 185.655 185.045
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 16812.9
DOW 37690.2
S&P 500 4776
WTI 73.55
GOLD 2036.19

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.