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Home > Market Watch > EU & UK News > Fri January 19, 2024

Daily Insights
January 19, 2024

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  • UK Retail sales release this morning posted a heavy drop, driving the pound lower against the greenback. December sales MoM dropped 3.2%, vs. est. -0.5%, and YoY, fell 2.4% vs. an estimated gain of 1.1%. The data suggests that a combination of high interest rates and a weaker jobs market made consumers more cautious. The BoE remains alert to consumer demand at the end of the year, watching for signs that inflationary pressures may persists as it tries to decide when it can start to cut interest rates. The pound currently trades at 1.2685, rebounding from this week’s low of 1.2597. EUR/GBP currently trades at 0.8575, taking a lift from a weaker pound this morning – next big support at 0.8550.

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  • The euro is quiet today – we are trading at 1.0880 after testing the key support twice near 1.0850 in the past two days and the market rejecting it. We had the ECB minutes release last night and they continue to repel any imminent rate cuts with policymakers converging around June to cut interest rates.

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  • US jobless claims fell to their lowest since 2022, but signs of cooling demand for workers emphasize the growing cracks in the labor market. Meanwhile, housing activity recovered thanks to looser financial conditions and few sellers coming to market. This afternoon markets will focus on the University of Michigan survey, as investors continue to search for clues on the timing of the first Fed cut of the cycle.

Economic Calendar

19 Jan 2024
:
JPY - Tertiary Industry Activity m/m
:
EUR - German PPI m/m
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GBP - Retail Sales m/m
:
CHF - PPI m/m
:
CNY - Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
:
All - WEF Annual Meetings
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EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks
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CAD - Core Retail Sales m/m
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CAD - Retail Sales m/m
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GBP - CB Leading Index m/m
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USD - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
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USD - Existing Home Sales
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USD - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
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USD - TIC Long-Term Purchases
:
USD - FOMC Member Daly Speaks

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85848 0.85584
gbp/usd 1.27145 1.26564
gbp/aud 1.93325 1.92727
gbp/nzd 2.08496 2.07437
usd/jpy 148.803 147.937
eur/usd 1.08896 1.08754
gbp/jpy 188.93 188.058
eur/cnh 7.85452 7.8358
usd/cnh 7.2165 7.20358
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 17055.7
DOW 37471.4
S&P 500 4789.44
BRENT CRUDE 79.13
WTI 73.91
GOLD 2025.15

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo

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Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.

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