Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
May 10, 2024

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  • The Bank of England kept rates unchanged at its policy meeting yesterday, but the takeaway was the signalling that the central bank is closer to a rate cut. Governor Andrew Bailey sent the clearest sign yet to the market that the bank might be starting its policy easing soon, indicating that the market was underpricing the pace of easing in the next few months.
  • Although most policymakers voted to keep rates unchanged at 5.25%, a second member joined the dovish side supporting an immediate lowering of interest rates. Bailey has not ruled out a potential cut in June, but it is not a done deal – traders now see a 58% chance of a cut at the June 20 meeting.
  • The UK is out of a recession with a stronger than expected growth print published this morning. The Gross Domestic Product advanced 0.6% in the first quarter, the best reading since late 2021. The pound reacted on the news and jumped to trade around 1.2530.

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  • In the US, jobless claims released last night suggested layoffs are increasing and that the labour market continues to cool down. Initial Jobless claims advanced to 231k (vs. 212k estimate) and continuing claims were in line at 1785k (vs. 1782k estimate). The DXY erased most of its gains following the data, dropping from 105.70 to trade at 105.25.

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  • The Euro advanced post US jobless claims and currently hold under 1.08 ahead of today’s ECB minutes of the April Policy Meeting.

Economic Calendar

JPY - 30-y Bond Auction
JPY - Economy Watchers Sentiment
GBP - GDP m/m
GBP - Prelim GDP q/q
GBP - Construction Output m/m
GBP - Goods Trade Balance
GBP - Index of Services 3m/3m
GBP - Industrial Production m/m
GBP - Manufacturing Production m/m
GBP - Prelim Business Investment q/q
EUR - Italian Industrial Production m/m
CNY - M2 Money Supply y/y
CNY - New Loans
GBP - MPC Member Pill Speaks
EUR - ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
GBP - MPC Member Dhingra Speaks
GBP - NIESR GDP Estimate
CAD - Employment Change
CAD - Unemployment Rate
USD - FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
USD - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
USD - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
USD - Mortgage Delinquencies
USD - FOMC Member Barr Speaks
USD - Federal Budget Balance

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.86104 0.85929
gbp/usd 1.25402 1.25119
gbp/aud 1.89666 1.89225
gbp/nzd 2.08064 2.07457
usd/jpy 155.77 155.359
eur/usd 1.07824 1.0773
gbp/jpy 195.115 194.594
eur/cnh 7.79291 7.7801
usd/cnh 7.23018 7.21878
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 18135.6
DOW 39452.7
S&P 500 5221.13
WTI 79.79
GOLD 2361.54

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo


Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.