Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
May 3, 2024

  • The US dollar lost ground overnight with the dollar index falling, extending the post FOMC sell-off. US weekly jobless claims came in lower than estimated and remain at the low levels witness in the last few months. Wage pressures remain a concern to the FOMC and to the outlook for the US economy and unit labor costs surprisingly rose 4.7% q/q in the first three months of the year against expectations of 4.0%. Ongoing concerns over intervention by Japanese authorities to support the flagging yen are adding further pressure and uncertainty to currency markets.
  • EURUSD remains rangebound after this week’s CPI and GDP data with the pair hovering above 1.07 support. According to Chief Economist Philip Lane, the ECB is taking a meeting-by-meeting approach for its next steps on monetary policy. In a speech yesterday he said, “we are not pre-committing to a particular rate path,” saying that “a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach is the best way to ensure that the calibration of monetary policy incorporates the multiple dimensions” of current uncertainty. A June 6th rate cut seems highly likely, but the path beyond that initial cut remains unclear, with some suggesting back-to-back cuts whilst others remain cautious over hasty moves.
  • This afternoon the attention shifts to the US as we eagerly await the release of the April Non-farm Payroll report. The pace of hiring remains consistent however signs of a cooling labor market remain, with markets expecting a softer print of 250k today – down from last month’s 303k.

Economic Calendar

CNY - Bank Holiday
EUR - French Gov Budget Balance
EUR - French Industrial Production m/m
EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change
EUR - Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
GBP - Final Services PMI
EUR - Unemployment Rate
USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m
USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
USD - Unemployment Rate
USD - Final Services PMI
USD - FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
USD - ISM Services PMI
USD - FOMC Member Williams Speaks

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85589 0.85511
gbp/usd 1.25567 1.25308
gbp/aud 1.90992 1.90638
gbp/nzd 2.10413 2.09979
usd/jpy 153.446 152.748
eur/usd 1.07394 1.07243
gbp/jpy 192.378 191.748
eur/cnh 7.7327 7.7129
usd/cnh 7.20783 7.18438
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 17648.5
DOW 38450.7
S&P 500 5078.79
WTI 79.21
GOLD 2306.68

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.