Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
April 15, 2024

  • Markets start the week in risk off mode as fears of further escalation in the Middle East pushed equities lower and oil higher. Investors remain wary of a further response to the weekend attack by Iran on Israel.
  • It is a busy week for UK data, with markets looking to the March inflation report to see if the Bank of England will be on course to deliver a June rate cut. Ahead of this we look to tomorrow’s February jobs and wage data, which is expected to add to recent evidence that the jobs market is cooling. Wednesday sees the release of the CPI Inflation print for March, which is likely to drop back again to 3% from 3.4% in February. All aspects of the inflation report are expected to fall with markets looking for a sub 2% print in April in line with recent BoE projections, potentially giving the central bank the chance to drop the base rate in the coming months.
  • The German ZEW Survey and Euro area Final inflation data are the main data releases from the euro area in the coming days, with Wednesdays CPI release expected to show a slight fall in March.
  • Last week’s hot inflation report from the US pushed expectations of an imminent rate cut from the Federal Reserve back several months and markets will once again look at this week’s data calendar for clues on the timing of the first cut. Retail Sales are out today along with the Empire Manufacturing Survey and Tuesday sees the release of the Industrial Production report. The Fed’s Beige Book is out on Wednesday, Initial Jobless Claims are out on Thursday along with the Philly Fed Business Outlook.

Economic Calendar

CHF - PPI m/m
EUR - Industrial Production m/m
GBP - MPC Member Breeden Speaks
CAD - Housing Starts
CAD - Manufacturing Sales m/m
CAD - Wholesale Sales m/m
USD - Core Retail Sales m/m
USD - Empire State Manufacturing Index
USD - Retail Sales m/m
USD - FOMC Member Williams Speaks
USD - Business Inventories m/m
USD - NAHB Housing Market Index
All - IMF Meetings

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85527 0.85203
gbp/usd 1.24646 1.24247
gbp/aud 1.9261 1.91901
gbp/nzd 2.09883 2.08613
usd/jpy 153.848 152.961
eur/usd 1.06549 1.06274
gbp/jpy 191.671 190.053
eur/cnh 7.73729 7.72232
usd/cnh 7.26763 7.25586
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 18102.3
DOW 38140
S&P 500 5150.23
WTI 85.26
GOLD 2356.27

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.