Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
April 29, 2024

  • The Japanese yen remains under the spotlight after trading to a fresh 34 year low against the US dollar on Friday to finally breach 160. This came after further solid US data at the end of the week and follows Friday’s BoJ policy meeting where rates were left unchanged as expected. Overnight, USDJPY has reversed, with markets witnessing local banks selling as traders suspect official intervention may be on the cards or possibly already occurred. Markets are confused, as today is a bank holiday in Japan, making intervention less likely but not impossible, so investors will continue to monitor.
  • Euro area inflation data is on the docket this week, with markets eagerly awaiting the data to see if a June ECB rate cut is finally a done deal. CPI inflation for April is expected to hold steady at 2.4%, held up by higher energy costs. We also look forward to the release of euro area GDP data for the first quarter to see if the region has exited the mildest of technical recessions. After contracting by just 0.1% in both the final quarters of 2023, markets expect the report to show the euro area expanding by 0.1% in the first three months of the year.
  • It’s a busy week ahead for US data, with a plethora of labor market data and a Fed policy meeting in the coming days. March’s hot CPI and PCE data has pushed the first rate cut out to the final quarter of the year and markets will look to Chairman Powell to see if he makes a hawkish pivot at the Apr 30 – May 1 meeting. Tuesday sees the release of the much-anticipated Consumer Confidence report, which is expected to soften a touch as inflation remained elevated and the job market cooling. The JOLTs job openings report is out on Wednesday, initial jobless claims Thursday and April’s Non-farm Payroll released on Friday.

Economic Calendar

EUR - German Prelim CPI m/m
EUR - Spanish Flash CPI y/y
EUR - Italian 10-y Bond Auction
GBP - BRC Shop Price Index y/y
JPY - Unemployment Rate
JPY - Prelim Industrial Production m/m
JPY - Retail Sales y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.8563 0.85415
gbp/usd 1.25482 1.24397
gbp/aud 1.91368 1.90431
gbp/nzd 2.10502 2.08335
usd/jpy 160.197 155.045
eur/usd 1.07334 1.06882
gbp/jpy 200.502 194.485
eur/cnh 7.78837 7.766
usd/cnh 7.2691 7.25178
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 17799.4
DOW 38376
S&P 500 5117.27
WTI 83.19
GOLD 2333.96

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.