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Home > Market Watch > EU & UK News > Mon February 12, 2024

Daily Insights
February 12, 2024

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  • The US Dollar starts the week muted against major peers ahead of tomorrow’s key US Inflation data. It makes sense that the greenback is consolidating as the market expects Tuesday’s inflation gauge to come in line with the Federal Reserve’s target.
  • According to FOMC Members, they need more evidence that price pressures are heading the right direction to ultimately reach the 2% before they decide to cut interest rates, so any persistent near-target inflation and sign of a weakening labour would be that evidence.
  • Key data/events to watch this week in the US: January’s CPI Release (Tue.); Empire Manufacturing Survey (Thur.) Retail Sales (Thur.); Philadelphia Fed Business outlook (Thur.); Initial Jobless Claims (Thur.); U. Michigan Survey (Fri.).

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  • Quiet week for the Euro, with little data coming out apart from Germany ZEW Expectations Survey and Industrial production for the euro-area, where is likely to have declined again in December, mainly due to a contraction in Germany’s output.
  • The euro is currently trading around the 1.08 level, slightly higher than Friday and aiming at the next resistance at 1.0830, followed by 1.09. First support is seen at 1.0724, followed by 1.0656.
  • Key data/events to watch this week in the Euro-area: Germany ZEW Expectations Survey (Tue.); Euro-area Industrial Production (Wed.).

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  • Big week for the sterling with loads of data coming out on inflation, wages, and growth. UK inflation is likely to have increased slightly in the month of January, mainly due to energy and services price contributions. This shouldn’t alarm the BOE much as the bigger picture is that inflation is heading below 2% by spring.
  • The central bank will keep paying close attention to jobs data and wage growth figures, where the market is expecting it to keep cooling. Growth data for 4Q23 will likely show a second consecutive quarterly contraction, suggesting that the UK fell into a mild technical recession at the end of 2023.
  • GBPUSD is back in the 1.26-1.28 range again, with support seen at 1.26 and initial resistance at 1.27 followed by the key 1.28 which has been tested on several occasions since December.
  • Key data/events to watch this week in the UK: UK Average Weekly Earning (Tue.); UK CPI Inflation for January (Wed.); UK GDP (Thur.); UK Retail Sales (Fri.).

Economic Calendar

12 Feb 2024
:
JPY - Bank Holiday
:
NZD - RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
:
CNY - Bank Holiday
:
USD - FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
:
USD - FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
:
GBP - BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
:
USD - Federal Budget Balance
:
AUD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment
:
JPY - PPI y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85468 0.85227
gbp/usd 1.26546 1.26144
gbp/aud 1.93869 1.9329
gbp/nzd 2.06175 2.0472
usd/jpy 149.29 148.999
eur/usd 1.08055 1.07748
gbp/jpy 188.641 188.245
eur/cnh 7.80114 7.7768
usd/cnh 7.2254 7.21349
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 17972.2
DOW 38650.1
S&P 500 5027.85
BRENT CRUDE 81.48
WTI 76.26
GOLD 2025.62

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo

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Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.

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