Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
January 22, 2024

  • flag european union 1f1ea 1f1faWe start the week with markets in consolidation mode with EURUSD hovering around 1.09 as we await the ECB policy meeting in the next few days. Wednesday sees the release of the euro area composite PMI, where investors will be looking to see if the economy has continued to avoid a hard landing. Markets believe that the economy will gradually gather momentum n 2024, however growth remains impacted by the ECB’s sharp rise in interest rates. The German Ifo service is out on Thursday and will be closely watched after the larger than expected rise in the ZEW expectations survey. The ECB is expected to key rates unchanged at the first meeting of 2024 on Thursday, with the focus on Christine Lagarde’s press conference – especially any comments on the timing of rate cuts. Central bankers have been pushing back on early rate cuts, expressing caution, with markets now expecting the first cut from the ECB in June.
  • flag united states 1f1fa 1f1f8Fed speakers head into the blackout period ahead of the January policy meeting, with recent comments suggesting that policymakers are in no rush to cut rates. We have little data on the US docket at the start of the week, with Thursday’s fourth quarter reading of GDP the first key release. Markets expect that real GDP grew 1.8% in Q4, down from the previous 4.9%. Friday sees the release of Personal Income and spending data, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and should provide some encouraging inflation news for the central bank.

Economic Calendar

CNY - 1-y Loan Prime Rate
CNY - 5-y Loan Prime Rate
USD - CB Leading Index m/m
NZD - BusinessNZ Services Index

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85802 0.85624
gbp/usd 1.27246 1.26619
gbp/aud 1.93151 1.91967
gbp/nzd 2.0834 2.06972
usd/jpy 148.278 147.733
eur/usd 1.09092 1.0881
gbp/jpy 188.372 187.605
eur/cnh 7.85988 7.84158
usd/cnh 7.20982 7.19149
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 17441.4
DOW 37915.6
S&P 500 4855.08
WTI 72.87
GOLD 2023.48

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.