Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
January 29, 2024

  • flag european union 1f1ea 1f1faWe look forward to a busy week, with important data releases and central bank meetings in the coming days. European data is first on the agenda, with inflation and GDP from individual countries and the euro area coming up. Markets expect euro area GDP data for the fourth quarter to show that the regions economy stagnated after contracting in the third quarter. Euro area headline inflation is also on the docket this week and is expected to have resumed its downward trend in January. This will be welcomed by ECB officials as markets expect this inflation trajectory to continue, eventually taking the headline rate below the central bank’s 2% target around the middle of the year.
  • flag united kingdom 1f1ec 1f1e7The Bank of England meets for the first time this year on Thursday and is set to hold interest rates unchanged at 5.25% for a fourth straight meeting. Rate setters on the MPC continue to be cautious of a fresh bout of inflation, however the outlook has seen a big shift since the central bank produced its last forecast in November. The market was disappointed with the small uptick in the December inflation report and the timing of the first cut remains an ongoing talking point.
  • flag united states 1f1fa 1f1f8It is a packed calendar from the US this week, kicking off with Consumer Confidence data tomorrow. A further improvement is expected, boosted by decelerating inflation and expectations of lower interest rates. Labor market data dominates the week with the JOLTs job openings report released on Tuesday, ADP Private payrolls out on Wednesday, weekly Initial Claims on Thursday, and Non-farm Payrolls on Friday. The Fed concludes its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday and is expected to keep rates unchanged. Markets will be looking for clues on the size and timing of rate cuts in 2024 when Chairman Powell delivers his post meeting press conference.

Economic Calendar

CNY - CB Leading Index m/m
USD - Loan Officer Survey
JPY - Unemployment Rate

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85448 0.85312
gbp/usd 1.27121 1.26901
gbp/aud 1.93185 1.92618
gbp/nzd 2.08541 2.07754
usd/jpy 148.332 147.839
eur/usd 1.0849 1.08391
gbp/jpy 188.285 187.899
eur/cnh 7.8047 7.7866
usd/cnh 7.1968 7.18066
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 17454
DOW 38096.5
S&P 500 4893.26
WTI 78.17
GOLD 2030.89

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.