Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
June 10, 2024

  • Friday’s US Non-farm Payroll print was stronger than expected and pushed the US dollar higher against its G10 peers and raised doubts over whether the Fed will be able to cut interest rates twice this year. The gain of 272,000 jobs in May was considerably above expectations and pushed EURUSD to test support at 1.0850. The single currency has dropped further this morning after French President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election in an attempt to thwart the rise of his far-right rival Marine Le Pen. EURUSD dropped through 1.0750 where it is currently consolidating.
  • The US remains centre of attention in the coming days as markets look forward to the latest inflation report on Wednesday. Declining energy prices are likely to be a welcome relief for both US consumers and the Fed, with markets looking for a drop in headline inflation to 0.1%, down from the previous recording of 0.3%. Wednesday also sees the latest FOMC decision, with officials concluding the June policy meeting which may be the most pivotal of the year. The publication of the latest “dot plot” will likely indicate two cuts of 25 basis points, down from the three cuts suggested in March.
  • The pound softened on Friday after the above consensus US labour market data, with GBPUSD consolidating in the low 1.27’s this morning. UK data in the coming days may give markets clues on the timing of the first interest rate cut from the BoE, with tomorrow’s jobs data expected to show that pay growth remains sticky. Wednesday’s GDP print is likely to suggest that the pace of economic activity is cooling. An August interest rate cut from the BoE is currently pencilled in but we have a lot of data and a general election to further cloud the decision.

Economic Calendar

CNY - Bank Holiday
JPY - Economy Watchers Sentiment
CHF - SECO Consumer Climate
EUR - Italian Industrial Production m/m
CNY - New Loans
CNY - M2 Money Supply y/y
EUR - Sentix Investor Confidence
EUR - German Buba President Nagel Speaks
JPY - M2 Money Stock y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.84856 0.84396
gbp/usd 1.2732 1.26894
gbp/aud 1.93461 1.92386
gbp/nzd 2.08592 2.07245
usd/jpy 157.19 156.348
eur/usd 1.07895 1.07479
gbp/jpy 199.924 198.461
eur/cnh 7.84391 7.8095
usd/cnh 7.27266 7.259
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 19019.8
DOW 38788.4
S&P 500 5350.89
WTI 75.73
GOLD 2293.15

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.