Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
June 17, 2024

  • Major central banks are estimated to hold interest rates this week, with the Bank of England almost likely to keep interest rates unchanged ahead of the UK election in July (Thu.). UK Inflation is also due a day before the central bank meeting (Wed.), where the headline CPI survey points for the print to hit the 2% goal for the first time in nearly three years. UK Flash PMI Survey for June (Fri.) will be key to understand how growth is developing in the country, given the country’s recent signs of cooling in activity.
  • In the euro-area a second reading of inflation will provide further insight into last month’s larger than expected advance (Tue.) and euro-area flash PMI will also be due toward the end of the week (Fri.).
  • In the US, last week’s FOMC meeting saw a shift in the dot plot to only one rate cut by the end of this year even as US May Core CPI and PPI showed signs of cooling, coming in below estimates. This week, Retail Sales data (Tue.) are estimated to show a gain from the previous month to 0.3% with businesses slashing prices to attract costumers but consumer remain under pressure.

 

  • The US Dollar continues to be on the spotlight, holding near a 7-month high as political tensions in France spurred worry across the financial markets, especially with debt risk for the country depending on the election outcome. France’s far right party is now on track to win 35% of the vote in the first round at the end of this month. The US Dollar Index holds at 105.60, set to test 106.

 

  • The euro is unchanged, continuing to hover the 1.07 support after trading as low as 1.0668 on Friday and dropping almost 1% last week. Next key support seen at 1.06 and resistance at 1.08.
  • Sterling trades near its lowest level since the beginning of May, fragile around 1.2700. The pair traded as low as 1.2657 on Friday. Next key support seen at 1.2650 and resistance at 1.28.
  • EURGBP is trading near 0.8450 after testing the key support at 0.84 on Friday. It will be a key week for the pair with major events on both regions and scaling political tensions.

Economic Calendar

:
CNY - New Home Prices m/m
:
AUD - ANZ Job Advertisements m/m
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CNY - Industrial Production y/y
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CNY - Retail Sales y/y
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CNY - Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y
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CNY - NBS Press Conference
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CNY - Unemployment Rate
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CNY - Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
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CHF - SECO Economic Forecasts
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All - G7 Meetings
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CAD - Housing Starts
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CAD - Foreign Securities Purchases
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USD - Empire State Manufacturing Index
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NZD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.8443 0.84084
gbp/usd 1.26883 1.26571
gbp/aud 1.9219 1.90731
gbp/nzd 2.07146 2.06036
usd/jpy 157.663 156.923
eur/usd 1.07087 1.06879
gbp/jpy 199.921 198.874
eur/cnh 7.78607 7.7676
usd/cnh 7.27184 7.2643
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 19671.4
DOW 38542.4
S&P 500 5429.82
BRENT CRUDE 82.22
WTI 78.08
GOLD 2319.09

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo

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Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.