Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
June 24, 2024

  • European politics and the single currency are in focus as we are just over a week away from the first round of the French elections. The political uncertainty has been weighing on the euro, with EURUSD tracking lower towards the end of last week. Weekend polls suggest that Marine Le Pen’s far right National Rally should win the first round of French legislative election with 35.5% share with President Macron’s party getting 21% of the vote.
  • European data remains important with ECB officials continuing to watch data ahead of another rate cut and the German Ifo Survey due to be released this morning is usually one of the most reliable early indicators of economic activity in Germany. The June reading out later this morning will provide markets with a better idea about the speed of the recovery of Europe’s largest economy and may give markets an insight into whether the central bank can follow its first rate cut of the cycle with a second move. Inflation data scheduled for Friday from France, Spain and Italy are expected to show that price pressures are moving in the right direction as energy prices continue to fall.
  • US inflation remains under the spotlight and Fed officials will be looking for some good news as markets expect the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge – the core PCE deflator to print at its slowest monthly pace this year and slowest year-over-year pace since March 2021. Consumer Confidence data is out tomorrow and is expected to show that US households are tightening their belts, at least judging by the latest retail sales data. An interest rate cut from the Fed is still a long way off and we continue to watch the data for signs of when the first move will be announced.

Economic Calendar

NZD - Credit Card Spending y/y
USD - FOMC Member Waller Speaks
EUR - German ifo Business Climate
GBP - CBI Industrial Order Expectations
EUR - German Buba President Nagel Speaks
EUR - Belgian NBB Business Climate
CAD - BOC Gov Macklem Speaks
USD - FOMC Member Daly Speaks
JPY - SPPI y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.84619 0.84425
gbp/usd 1.26491 1.26224
gbp/aud 1.90651 1.90016
gbp/nzd 2.06929 2.05753
usd/jpy 159.926 159.591
eur/usd 1.06978 1.06811
gbp/jpy 202.158 201.578
eur/cnh 7.79805 7.78456
usd/cnh 7.2946 7.28484
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 19761.9
DOW 39178
S&P 500 5477.97
WTI 80.65
GOLD 2325.41

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.