Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
June 3, 2024

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  • Last week’s US inflation data softened following its resurgence at the start of the year, with the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, Core PCE, advancing at the slowest pace this year. First Quarter GDP was also revised, coming out lower than expected, demonstrating the impact of the current tight monetary policy in place.
  • In the US, the highlight of the week will be the May’s Nonfarm payrolls report due on Friday where it should hint, again, that interest rates are restrictive enough and that they are not.
  • The dilemma of whether interest rates are “on point” has been growing among Fed policymakers- NY Fed President John Williams stated that there is plenty of evidence of the tight credit conditions but his colleague Lorie Logan, Dallas Fed President, disagrees, affirming that rates may not be as “restrictive as believed”.
  • The US Dollar trades lower today as traders wait for US ISM Data later today, which should provide further information of how strong the economy is.

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  • In Europe, the ECB prepares for the first interest rate cut of its easing cycle which is set to take place on Thursday. The Bank of Poland has its rate decision on Wednesday and Germany’s Industrial production gauge is due on Friday.
  • The euro continues to trade in a tight range, mid 1.08-1.09. It traded well on Friday but finished little changed but up 1.7% on the month.

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  • In the UK, there is not much to be expected in the spectrum of data apart from today’s manufacturing PMI. Sterling holds mid 1.27-1.28 after testing the upper level and the lower level of this range last week.

Economic Calendar

JPY - Final Manufacturing PMI
AUD - MI Inflation Gauge m/m
CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI
AUD - Commodity Prices y/y
EUR - Spanish Manufacturing PMI
CHF - Manufacturing PMI
EUR - Italian Manufacturing PMI
EUR - French Final Manufacturing PMI
EUR - German Final Manufacturing PMI
EUR - Final Manufacturing PMI
GBP - Final Manufacturing PMI
CAD - Manufacturing PMI
USD - Final Manufacturing PMI
USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI
USD - ISM Manufacturing Prices
USD - Construction Spending m/m
USD - Wards Total Vehicle Sales
GBP - BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
JPY - Monetary Base y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85206 0.84907
gbp/usd 1.27557 1.27223
gbp/aud 1.91745 1.91095
gbp/nzd 2.07433 2.06713
usd/jpy 157.468 156.994
eur/usd 1.08586 1.08375
gbp/jpy 200.642 199.772
eur/cnh 7.88488 7.8713
usd/cnh 7.26441 7.25271
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 18603.7
DOW 38787.3
S&P 500 5296.48
WTI 76.76
GOLD 2317.27

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo


Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.