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Home > Market Watch > EU & UK News > Mon March 11, 2024

Daily Insights
March 11, 2024

  • Last week ended with another set of ambiguous data – a strong Nonfarm payrolls print (+275k jobs added vs. 200k estimate) but unemployment data saw an unexpected increase (3.9% vs. 3.7% estimate) which comes in line with other survey-based labour market indicators that many economists believe to show the true state of the labour market in the US.
  • The Federal Reserve has been extra-sensitive to any signs of deterioration in the labour market but this week, traders shift their attention to the February CPI report, but it is unlikely that Fed Chair Jerome Powell changes stance to a more dovish one.
  • The US Dollar Index is set for further weakness this week, dropping roughly 1% in the last 5 days as expectations rise that the Fed will leave its dot plot unchanged at the 20 March meeting and the expectations of continuous disinflation on this week’s CPI print.
  • Key data/events to watch this week in the US: February’s CPI Report (Tue.); Retail Sales (Thu.); U. Michigan (Fri.); Industrial Production (Fri.).

 

  • In the euro-area, the week starts off busy with Portuguese elections and another move to the right, and with a few activity gauges on the calendar. Euro-area Industrial Production is set for a sharp drop in January ( -1.0% estimate vs. +2.6% prior) with Irish industrial production dropping by 28.9% in January.
  • The euro is trading at 1.0940, advancing on the back of a weaker US Dollar. Next resistance sits at 1.1010 and immediate support at 1.0920.
  • Key data/events to watch this week in the Euro-area: Industrial Production MoM (Wed.)

 

  • The Bank of England will be watching closely this week’s labour market and growth data. Regular pay growth is likely to show stickiness, suggesting wage gain hasn’t cooled off as much as the BOE would like.  UK GDP is estimated to tick to 0.1%, from prior -0.1%, signalling that the mild technical recession at the end of the last year may already be over.
  • Cable rallied on Friday and today we are muted but on top of the 1.25-1.28 channel we had been trading since the end of November 2023. We are trading at 1.2840 with the next immediate resistance at 1.2894 (Friday’s high) and support at 1.2800.
  • Key data/events to watch this week in the UK: UK Avg. Weekly Earnings ex-Bonus (3M/Y)(Tue.); UK Monthly GDP MoM ( Wed.).

Economic Calendar

11 Mar 2024
:
JPY - Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y
:
CHF - SECO Consumer Climate
:
CNY - New Loans
:
CNY - M2 Money Supply y/y
:
EUR - Eurogroup Meetings
:
GBP - MPC Member Mann Speaks
:
AUD - RBA Assist Gov Hunter Speaks
:
JPY - BSI Manufacturing Index
:
JPY - PPI y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85156 0.84914
gbp/usd 1.28619 1.28453
gbp/aud 1.94455 1.93517
gbp/nzd 2.08268 2.06936
usd/jpy 147.125 146.532
eur/usd 1.09464 1.09296
gbp/jpy 189.13 188.446
eur/cnh 7.8813 7.8607
usd/cnh 7.20117 7.18578
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 18026
DOW 38673.4
S&P 500 5122.63
BRENT CRUDE 81.91
WTI 77.73
GOLD 2179.32

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo

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Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.

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