Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
March 18, 2024

  • We have a busy week of events and data releases to look forward to, with the main focus being Wednesday’s FOMC decision. Recent above consensus inflation releases have reined in market expectations for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, and analysts put a zero percent chance of a decrease this week. The market is currently pricing in 72 basis points of cuts in 2024, which pretty much equates to three cuts of 0.25%, with the June FOMC currently pricing in a 50% chance of a 25bp reduction. The updated ‘dot plot’ will be heavily scrutinized and markets will look for any guidance from Chairman Powell on rate cut timing. Aside from the Fed meeting, we have a few data releases on the docket including Housing Starts (Tue), Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Outlook, and Existing Home Sales (Thur).
  • Euro area Final CPI is released later this morning, where headline and core inflation fell slightly less than consensus had anticipated in February. Tuesday sees the release of the German ZEW Survey where investor expectations are expected to have improved for a seventh successive month. The euro-area composite PMI survey for March is out on Thursday and markets will look to see if the data provides an indication of whether GDP growth continued to gain momentum in the first quarter.
  • The latest UK inflation report is out on Wednesday, with headline CPI inflation expected to drop back swiftly in February to 3.4% from 4% in January. Markets currently expect headline inflation to fall below 3% in March, with a possible sub 2% reading coming in due course. The Bank of England is expected to keep rates on hold when the MPC meets on Thursday, acknowledging that the next move in rates will likely be down however the timing of the first move remains vague. Retail Sales are released on Friday, with recent readings hampered by poor weather.

Economic Calendar

GBP - Rightmove HPI m/m
CNY - Industrial Production y/y
CNY - Retail Sales y/y
CNY - Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y
CNY - NBS Press Conference
CNY - Unemployment Rate
EUR - Final Core CPI y/y
EUR - Final CPI y/y
EUR - Trade Balance
CAD - IPPI m/m
CAD - RMPI m/m
USD - NAHB Housing Market Index

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85533 0.85373
gbp/usd 1.27377 1.27256
gbp/aud 1.94184 1.93735
gbp/nzd 2.09303 2.08528
usd/jpy 149.329 148.907
eur/usd 1.08935 1.08756
gbp/jpy 190.149 189.451
eur/cnh 7.8476 7.8373
usd/cnh 7.20795 7.19909
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 17948.9
DOW 38809.4
S&P 500 5144.65
WTI 81.44
GOLD 2147.33

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.