Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
March 4, 2024

  • Uncertainty over the timing of central bank interest rate cuts have kept currency markets within tight ranges as markets continue to watch data. This week we have a flurry of events and data releases that may shake currencies out of their ranges. The US labor market continues to show a strong pace of hiring with last month’s Non-farm Payrolls coming in considerably above consensus at 353,000. In the coming days we await JOLTs job openings (Wed) and weekly initial claims (Thur) followed by the February NFP release (Fri) which is expected to have slowed to come in around 200k. Markets continue to be influenced by Fed speak as we look for further clues on the timing of potential rate cuts, and this week we hear from Chairman Jerome Powell, who delivers his Semi- annual Congressional Testimony on Wednesday and Thursday. We can also throw into the melting pot a further resolution from Congress to avert a government shutdown as well as Super Tuesday which will likely seal the deal for the candidates in this year’s US elections.
  • EURUSD continues to trade around 1.0850 as we await the ECB policy meeting on Thursday, with policymakers widely expected to keep monetary policy unchanged. President Lagarde’s post meeting interview and fresh macroeconomic projections from ECB staff economists will be closely monitored for clues on when the central bank will be able to cut rates.
  • UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jermy Hunt delivers his budget on Wednesday, but he has limited scope to ease fiscal policy. Another reduction of the National Insurance contribution could be the centre piece to his speech, but with a general election on the horizon, it is unlikely that he will be willing to deliver a policy package that would impact the timing of interest rate cuts from the BoE later in the year.

Economic Calendar

AUD - MI Inflation Gauge m/m
AUD - ANZ Job Advertisements m/m
AUD - Building Approvals m/m
AUD - Company Operating Profits q/q
CHF - CPI m/m
EUR - French Gov Budget Balance
EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change
EUR - Sentix Investor Confidence
JPY - Tokyo Core CPI y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85662 0.85512
gbp/usd 1.26668 1.26467
gbp/aud 1.94325 1.93568
gbp/nzd 2.07739 2.06571
usd/jpy 150.319 149.839
eur/usd 1.08478 1.0834
gbp/jpy 190.34 189.516
eur/cnh 7.82048 7.81011
usd/cnh 7.2126 7.20524
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 18326.3
DOW 39034.1
S&P 500 5135.08
WTI 79.82
GOLD 2081.78

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.