Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
May 13, 2024

  • Global central banks continue to focus on inflation and the final reading for euro area inflation due later this week may be the data release needed to confirm the timing of the first interest rate cut from the ECB. Officials at the ECB would have been pleased to see services price inflation dropping in April to 3.7% after five stubborn months at 4% and Friday’s CPI inflation report may confirm that rate setters will be able to announce a cut at the 6 June policy meeting. The preliminary reading showed the headline rate at 2.4% in April, with the final reading expected to come in unchanged, putting the ECB on a path to cut rates significantly ahead of the US Federal Reserve.
  • Inflation is again a common theme this week, with Wednesday’s April CPI report from the US likely to dominate markets in the coming days. A deceleration from March is expected, with headline CPI inflation expected to remain at 0.4%, with the year over year change ticking down at tad from 3.5% to 3.4%. Stubborn and sticky inflation remain a challenge for Chairman Powell and his FOMC colleagues so this week’s CPI and PPI (Tue) will be closely monitored along with the PCE data later in the month to see if there is any possibility of an earlier rate cut from the Fed.
  • UK data is light this week, with tomorrow’s job data the only significant release on the docket. The labour market report is likely to deliver a mixed bag to markets and the BoE who left rates unchanged last week. Next week’s inflation report will be the next key piece of UK data as markets will look to see if a June rate cut is still on the cards.

Economic Calendar

AUD - NAB Business Confidence
NZD - Inflation Expectations q/q
CNY - Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
CHF - SECO Consumer Climate
EUR - EU Economic Forecasts
EUR - Eurogroup Meetings
CAD - Building Permits m/m
USD - FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks
USD - FOMC Member Mester Speaks
USD - Mortgage Delinquencies
CHF - SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
NZD - Visitor Arrivals m/m
JPY - PPI y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.86027 0.859
gbp/usd 1.25286 1.25149
gbp/aud 1.90099 1.89357
gbp/nzd 2.0871 2.07132
usd/jpy 155.958 155.491
eur/usd 1.07752 1.07657
gbp/jpy 195.262 194.722
eur/cnh 7.80103 7.78436
usd/cnh 7.24218 7.22862
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 18207.1
DOW 39522.4
S&P 500 5230.2
WTI 78.07
GOLD 2353.58

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.