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Home > Market Watch > EU & UK News > Mon May 20, 2024

Daily Insights
May 20, 2024

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  • Last week’s CPI release for April did not surprise many as the change from the previous month was modest as well as a lower-than-expected retail sales print which led, surprisingly, to another market rally.
  • Inflation continues to pose a great risk for the Federal Reserve, especially as year-on-year inflation continues to be higher than it was five months ago at 3.4% following several rises over the last few months. Overall, the scenario does not look so well that it explains last week’s rally.
  • Key Fed speakers will be due to speak this week, but the highlight will be the release of the FOMC minutes of the April 30 – May 1 meeting (Wed.).

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  • In the UK, inflation figures will be released on Wednesday which will leave the Bank of England a step closer to loosen its policy. The headline print for April is expected to decelerate further to the 2% goal (Est. 2.1% YoY vs. Prior 3.2%) as well as services inflation (Est. 3.6% YoY vs. Prior 4.2%), leaving us with one more print before the 20th of June meeting. UK Flash PMIs for May (Thu.) and Retail Sales (Fri.) are also expected this week.
  • Cable is muted this morning, and the pair holds just above the 1.27 handle.

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  • It is a quiet week in terms of data for the Euro-area but PMI surveys (Thu.) will provide further information on how growth is developing in the second quarter.
  • The euro trades higher at 1.0880 but fails to touch the key 1.09 level.

Economic Calendar

20 May 2024
:
CNY - 1-y Loan Prime Rate
:
CNY - 5-y Loan Prime Rate
:
JPY - Tertiary Industry Activity m/m
:
CHF - Bank Holiday
:
EUR - French Bank Holiday
:
EUR - German Bank Holiday
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GBP - MPC Member Broadbent Speaks
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USD - FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
:
CAD - Bank Holiday
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USD - FOMC Member Waller Speaks
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USD - FOMC Member Barr Speaks
:
USD - FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks
:
USD - FOMC Member Mester Speaks

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85647 0.85476
gbp/usd 1.27109 1.2683
gbp/aud 1.89822 1.89294
gbp/nzd 2.07471 2.06543
usd/jpy 155.937 155.316
eur/usd 1.08844 1.08609
gbp/jpy 198.095 197.086
eur/cnh 7.87811 7.8544
usd/cnh 7.23947 7.22832
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 18593.3
DOW 40029.9
S&P 500 5313.86
BRENT CRUDE 84.33
WTI 80.09
GOLD 2448.21

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo

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Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.

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