Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
April 11, 2024

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  • Another hot CPI to take rate cut bets down the drain, give the US Dollar a lift, and an indicator to the Fed that the disinflation momentum is slowing.  Headline and Core CPI remained at 0.4% MoM in March while YoY, headline climbed to 3.5% (vs. 3.2% prior) and core remained at 3.8%.
  • See, March is usually a favourable month for disinflation due to seasonal patterns, but the CPI report we received yesterday is not a good sign for the fight against inflation. Markets have now priced a full cut only for the November meeting, completely erasing June bets.
  • The US dollar advanced to the highest level since November as the market continues to shift the monetary policy path for the Federal Reserve. The DXY gained as much as 1.15% and it currently holds at 105.23.
  • US PPI is due to be released this afternoon and it will be in the highlight as it contributes to the Fed’s key deflator measure.

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  • It is ECB Day and EUR/USD investors have had little time to recover from yesterday’s US CPI and this this morning’s China CPI barely above zero calling out for policy to turn more supportive. The pair trades at 1.0730 and consolidates between 1.07-1.08, dropping more than 100 basis points since yesterday.
  • ECB’s President Christine Lagarde may be set to confirm a June cut and flag further easing throughout the year (as she did in previous press conferences). Economists seem to think that a rate cut is appropriate for the June meeting and the recent inflation report we received does not derail us from that.
  • EUR/GBP trades at 0.8559 and any dovishness from Lagarde today should bring the pair lower.
  • GBP/USD trades at 1.2535, taking a hit from a stronger US Dollar. Following the US inflation report, the pair dropped from 1.2708 to touch a key support at 1.2520.

Economic Calendar

AUD - MI Inflation Expectations
CNY - CPI y/y
CNY - PPI y/y
EUR - Italian Industrial Production m/m
CNY - New Loans
CNY - M2 Money Supply y/y
GBP - BOE Credit Conditions Survey
EUR - Eurogroup Meetings
EUR - Main Refinancing Rate
EUR - Monetary Policy Statement
USD - Core PPI m/m
USD - PPI m/m
USD - Unemployment Claims
EUR - ECB Press Conference
USD - FOMC Member Williams Speaks
USD - FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
USD - Natural Gas Storage
USD - 30-y Bond Auction
USD - FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
GBP - MPC Member Greene Speaks
NZD - BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index
NZD - FPI m/m

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85695 0.85627
gbp/usd 1.25494 1.25319
gbp/aud 1.92755 1.92257
gbp/nzd 2.09886 2.09458
usd/jpy 153.063 152.759
eur/usd 1.07488 1.07369
gbp/jpy 191.936 191.563
eur/cnh 7.80347 7.7871
usd/cnh 7.26414 7.25063
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 18040.2
DOW 38487.9
S&P 500 5165.99
WTI 86.21
GOLD 2336.33

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo


Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.