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Home > Market Watch > EU & UK News > Thu February 1, 2024

Daily Insights
February 1, 2024

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  • The Federal Reserve held interest rates for the fourth consecutive time and cemented a potential pivot but according to Fed’s Powell statement, it is not likely to be in March, giving a reality check to many investors. Powell’s words were well balanced and suggest that the Federal Reserve will be data-dependent, as their main priority is achieving the inflation target.
  • It seems like the market bets for a March cut started to evaporate, which can make traders re-price the cutting bets for the BOE and ECB.
  • The US Dollar Index has gained some ground overnight, advancing almost 0.5%. We are currently trading at 103.74.

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  • It is BOE day. Sterling heads lower towards 1.2640, after touching 1.2747 post Fed decision, as investors now prepare for the BOE’s monetary policy decision on when it plans to cut interest rates. It is widely expected that the central bank holds rates, but it may deliver a lower inflation forecast which can open the door for some easing. Traders currently price in cuts to start in June this year.

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  • It’s a busy day in Europe with plenty of data being released across many countries. Key prints to look out for will be Eurozone and Italy CPI, and Manufacturing PMIs for Eurozone, UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Norway, and Sweden.
  • The common currency has broken through the key support at 1.08, after being tested many times. Next key level will be at 1.0781, where the 100DMA lies.

Economic Calendar

01 Feb 2024
:
AUD - Building Approvals m/m
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AUD - Import Prices q/q
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AUD - NAB Quarterly Business Confidence
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JPY - Final Manufacturing PMI
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CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI
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JPY - 10-y Bond Auction
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AUD - Commodity Prices y/y
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EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks
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EUR - Spanish Manufacturing PMI
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CHF - Manufacturing PMI
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EUR - Italian Manufacturing PMI
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EUR - French Final Manufacturing PMI
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EUR - German Final Manufacturing PMI
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EUR - Final Manufacturing PMI
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GBP - Final Manufacturing PMI
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EUR - Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
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EUR - CPI Flash Estimate y/y
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EUR - Italian Prelim CPI m/m
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EUR - Unemployment Rate
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EUR - Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
:
All - OPEC-JMMC Meetings
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EUR - French 10-y Bond Auction
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GBP - BOE Monetary Policy Report
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GBP - Monetary Policy Summary
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GBP - MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
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GBP - Official Bank Rate
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USD - Challenger Job Cuts y/y
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GBP - BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
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USD - Unemployment Claims
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USD - Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q
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USD - Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q
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CAD - Manufacturing PMI
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USD - Final Manufacturing PMI
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USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI
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USD - ISM Manufacturing Prices
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USD - Construction Spending m/m
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USD - Wards Total Vehicle Sales
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USD - Natural Gas Storage
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CAD - BOC Gov Macklem Speaks
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NZD - Building Consents m/m
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JPY - Monetary Base y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85297 0.85205
gbp/usd 1.26979 1.26544
gbp/aud 1.93859 1.92841
gbp/nzd 2.07491 2.06757
usd/jpy 147.082 146.476
eur/usd 1.08219 1.07933
gbp/jpy 186.471 185.728
eur/cnh 7.77637 7.7599
usd/cnh 7.19405 7.18084
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 17197.8
DOW 38176.4
S&P 500 4856.74
BRENT CRUDE 80.59
WTI 75.84
GOLD 2043.71

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo

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Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.

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