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Home > Market Watch > EU & UK News > Thu February 15, 2024

Daily Insights
February 15, 2024

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  • The British pound is set for another day of bumpy trading as the UK economy entered a technical recession for the second half of 2023, according to GDP Data released this morning. UK’s GDP shrank 0.1% in December vs. est.-0.2% and dropped 0.3% in the fourth quarter (QoQ). Industrial Production, however, posted a solid gain MoM for December of 0.6%, vs. est. -0.1%, and +0.6% YoY, vs. est. -0.4%.
  • Sterling continues to trade mid 1.25-1.26, failing to fall below 1.2540 yesterday. EURGBP advances as the pound comes under pressure following the growth data released earlier – we are currently trading at 0.8550.

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  • Bundesbank President, Joachim Nagel, stated that Germany’s economy has likely shrunk this quarter but that best to cut interest rates at a later stage rather than too early. The euro remains under pressure but at least we’re out of the 1.07 support, currently trading at 1.0740 and taking a lift from a lower sterling. ECB’s Lagarde, Hernandez de Cos, Lane and Nagel are due to speak later today.

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  • The US Dollar steadies after dropping on Wednesday, with the DXY currently trading at 104.62. Fed’s Michael Barr spoke last night and stated that the central bank needs further evidence that inflation is lowering back to its 2% target before it begins to loosen credit conditions.

Economic Calendar

15 Feb 2024
:
AUD - MI Inflation Expectations
:
AUD - Employment Change
:
AUD - Unemployment Rate
:
CNY - Bank Holiday
:
JPY - Revised Industrial Production m/m
:
GBP - GDP m/m
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GBP - Prelim GDP q/q
:
GBP - Construction Output m/m
:
GBP - Goods Trade Balance
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GBP - Index of Services 3m/3m
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GBP - Industrial Production m/m
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GBP - Manufacturing Production m/m
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GBP - Prelim Business Investment q/q
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CNY - Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
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CHF - PPI m/m
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CHF - SECO Consumer Climate
:
EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks
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EUR - Italian Trade Balance
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EUR - Trade Balance
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EUR - Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
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EUR - EU Economic Forecasts
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GBP - MPC Member Greene Speaks
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GBP - NIESR GDP Estimate
:
CAD - Housing Starts
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CAD - Manufacturing Sales m/m
:
USD - Core Retail Sales m/m
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USD - Empire State Manufacturing Index
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USD - Retail Sales m/m
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USD - Unemployment Claims
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USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
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USD - Import Prices m/m
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GBP - MPC Member Mann Speaks
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USD - Industrial Production m/m
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USD - Capacity Utilization Rate
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USD - Business Inventories m/m
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USD - NAHB Housing Market Index
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AUD - CB Leading Index m/m
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USD - Natural Gas Storage
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EUR - German Buba President Nagel Speaks
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USD - FOMC Member Waller Speaks
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NZD - RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
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USD - TIC Long-Term Purchases
:
NZD - BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85485 0.85351
gbp/usd 1.25734 1.25445
gbp/aud 1.93942 1.93224
gbp/nzd 2.06632 2.06139
usd/jpy 150.551 150.049
eur/usd 1.07354 1.07246
gbp/jpy 189.204 188.283
eur/cnh 7.75617 7.7452
usd/cnh 7.22754 7.22066
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 17845.1
DOW 38455.3
S&P 500 5010.17
BRENT CRUDE 81.41
WTI 76.27
GOLD 1993.04

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo

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Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.

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