Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
January 25, 2024

  • flag united kingdom 1f1ec 1f1e7The pound posted gains against both the US dollar and euro yesterday after stronger than expected PMI data, pushing back on the timing of expected rate cuts from the BoE. The Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index rose in January to its highest level in seven months pushing GBPEUR above 1.17 and cable to test resistance at 1.2775. The solid data comes ahead of next week’s BoE policy meeting, where a pause is widely expected, with markets hotly debating the timing of the first interest rate cut of the year. Swaps tied to the central bank’s meetings now imply 95 basis points of cuts this year, compared to about 130 basis points last week and 150 basis points in December.
  • flag european union 1f1ea 1f1faEURUSD remains stubbornly mid-range, trading just below the psychological 1.09 area ahead of the first ECB policy meeting of 2024. The pair rallied yesterday after mixed euro area PMI data, pushing EURUSD to the top of its recent range at 1.0930 before running in to offers. Whilst officials at the ECB are fully expected to keep rates unchanged later today, markets will focus on President Christine Lagarde’s post meeting press conference for clues on the timing of the first policy shift of the year.
  • flag united states 1f1fa 1f1f8Yesterday was all about PMIs, and US results published yesterday showed that business activity in January expanded the most in seven months – marking the twelfth consecutive month of expansion. Weekly initial claims, Durable Goods Orders and New Homes sales along with the key fourth quarter GDP numbers are all on the docket this afternoon.

Economic Calendar

AUD - RBA Bulletin
EUR - German ifo Business Climate
GBP - CBI Realized Sales
EUR - Main Refinancing Rate
EUR - Monetary Policy Statement
USD - Advance GDP q/q
USD - Unemployment Claims
USD - Advance GDP Price Index q/q
USD - Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
USD - Durable Goods Orders m/m
USD - Goods Trade Balance
USD - Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m
EUR - ECB Press Conference
EUR - Belgian NBB Business Climate
USD - New Home Sales
USD - Natural Gas Storage
AUD - Bank Holiday
JPY - Tokyo Core CPI y/y
JPY - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
JPY - SPPI y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85593 0.85543
gbp/usd 1.27194 1.27035
gbp/aud 1.93498 1.93228
gbp/nzd 2.08295 2.07918
usd/jpy 147.858 147.543
eur/usd 1.08819 1.08702
gbp/jpy 187.906 187.601
eur/cnh 7.79709 7.7794
usd/cnh 7.16787 7.15431
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 17515.3
DOW 37907.5
S&P 500 4875.12
WTI 75.51
GOLD 2014.62

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.