Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
June 13, 2024

  • The Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged for a seventh straight meeting, voting to keep rates steady in a range of 5.25% to 5.50%. In an updated ‘dot-plot’ policymakers dialled back their expectations for rate cuts in 2024 with just one cut likely this year, down from the three they were forecasting in March. However, they now see four cuts in 2025, an increase in the three they were predicting three months ago. The two-day meeting was concluded a few hours after the release of the May inflation report which showed that price pressures are moving in the right direction. Both headline and core CPI come in a tenth lower than expected, giving some relief to US households. Whilst the drop was welcomed by Fed officials, policymakers have previously stressed that they would need to see several months of receding price pressures before they would consider lowering interest rates. There are now just four FOMC meetings before the end of the year and a cut in November or December is currently looking most likely, but the decision remains data dependant.
  • The US dollar was sold after the inflation report with EURUSD initially posting gains before selling off after the FOMC decision. The pair broke through the pivotal 1.08 level before running into offers at 1.0850. GBPUSD followed a similar pattern, spiking to 1.2860, before drifting lower to once again consolidate in the high 1.27’s.
  • The attention remains in the US this afternoon as we wait the release of weekly jobless claims and Producer Prices for May. PPI is likely to have slipped as gasoline prices declined and jobless claims are expected to come down after the upside surprise in the previous week.

Economic Calendar

AUD - Employment Change
AUD - Unemployment Rate
EUR - German WPI m/m
CHF - PPI m/m
EUR - Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate
CNY - New Loans
CNY - M2 Money Supply y/y
EUR - Industrial Production m/m
GBP - BOE Quarterly Bulletin
USD - Core PPI m/m
USD - PPI m/m
USD - Unemployment Claims
CAD - Gov Council Member Kozicki Speaks
USD - Natural Gas Storage
USD - Treasury Sec Yellen Speaks
USD - FOMC Member Williams Speaks
CAD - BOC Gov Macklem Speaks
USD - 30-y Bond Auction
NZD - BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index
NZD - FPI m/m

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.84537 0.84489
gbp/usd 1.27992 1.27785
gbp/aud 1.92363 1.91903
gbp/nzd 2.07247 2.06829
usd/jpy 157.142 156.694
eur/usd 1.08158 1.08023
gbp/jpy 200.812 200.498
eur/cnh 7.85487 7.8447
usd/cnh 7.26639 7.25589
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 19599.5
DOW 38655.9
S&P 500 5432.42
WTI 78.3
GOLD 2310.11

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.