Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
May 2, 2024

  • Members of the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged in a range of 5.25% to 5.50% as they concluded their two-day policy meeting yesterday. The decision was expected, following several hot inflation reports which have reduced policymakers’ confidence that inflationary pressures are waning. At the start of the year markets were expecting up to seven rate cuts from the Fed in 2024, however recent data suggest that interest rates will continue to be held ‘higher for longer’. When asked when a rate cut could come Chairman Powell said, “I don’t know how long it’ll take,” adding, “I can just say that when we get that confidence then rate cuts will be in scope, and I don’t know exactly when that will be.” He did give markets some comfort, saying that it is unlikely that the next move in policy rates would be up. Saying that officials would need to see “persuasive evidence” that policy isn’t sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to their 2% target to consider raising rates again. A cut at the last policy meeting of the year in December is the current expectation, although both the FOMC and markets will need to continue to watch the data for signs of an earlier move.
  • The US dollar slipped against most of its G10 peers after the Fed meeting, with the dollar index slipping 0.4%. GBPUSD is back on a 1.25 handle and EURUSD is back above 1.07 after slipping to a low of 1.0650 yesterday. The Japanese yen remains volatile, with a late surge in New York trading leading to some to speculate that Japanese officials has intervened for s second time this week. However, the rally was short lived with USDJPY paring most of the move.

Economic Calendar

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CNY - Bank Holiday
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AUD - Building Approvals m/m
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AUD - Goods Trade Balance
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JPY - Consumer Confidence
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CHF - CPI m/m
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CHF - Retail Sales y/y
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EUR - Spanish Manufacturing PMI
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CHF - Manufacturing PMI
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EUR - Italian Manufacturing PMI
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EUR - French Final Manufacturing PMI
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EUR - German Final Manufacturing PMI
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EUR - Final Manufacturing PMI
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EUR - French 10-y Bond Auction
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USD - Challenger Job Cuts y/y
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CAD - Trade Balance
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USD - Unemployment Claims
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USD - Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q
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USD - Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q
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USD - Trade Balance
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CAD - BOC Gov Macklem Speaks
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USD - Factory Orders m/m
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USD - Natural Gas Storage
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JPY - Bank Holiday

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85526 0.85464
gbp/usd 1.25395 1.25204
gbp/aud 1.92165 1.91747
gbp/nzd 2.11688 2.11327
usd/jpy 156.282 155.651
eur/usd 1.07209 1.07068
gbp/jpy 195.756 195.097
eur/cnh 7.76309 7.7479
usd/cnh 7.245 7.23368
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 17450.6
DOW 38063.4
S&P 500 5047.13
BRENT CRUDE 83.92
WTI 79.52
GOLD 2315.5

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.