Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
May 23, 2024

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  • Minutes from the two-day FOMC meeting earlier this month showed that the officials support interest rates to be “higher for longer” and are worried if policy is restrictive enough to bring inflation down to their target.
  • Following disappoint readings on inflation over the first quarter, committee members acknowledged “that it would take longer than previously anticipated for them to gain greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2%”.
  • The US Dollar edges lower this morning after rising for three consecutive days with the DXY trading at 104.86.

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  • In the UK, April CPI print has likely put bets for a June cut on the shelf and markets now point at a 50% chance of a cut at the August meeting according to Overnight Index Swaps.
  • Inflation is likely to drop further to the 2% goal until the end of the year instead of reaccelerating as the BOE expects. This could be a reason for rates to be cut faster than the markets currently anticipate.
  • UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has called for an early than expected election this summer, which is due to take place on the 4th of July. Inflation data failed Sunak and stagnant living standards are likely to deny him another mandate. Issues like inflation and weak productivity growth remain the biggest challenge for the UK economy which the next successor will have to face.
  • GBP/USD holds above 1.27, trading at 1.2726 while EUR/USD continues to hold above 1.08 at 1.0828.

Economic Calendar

JPY - Flash Manufacturing PMI
AUD - MI Inflation Expectations
EUR - French Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR - French Flash Services PMI
EUR - German Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR - German Flash Services PMI
EUR - Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR - Flash Services PMI
GBP - Flash Manufacturing PMI
GBP - Flash Services PMI
All - G7 Meetings
CNY - Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
GBP - MPC Member Pill Speaks
CAD - NHPI m/m
USD - Unemployment Claims
CNY - CB Leading Index m/m
USD - Flash Manufacturing PMI
USD - Flash Services PMI
EUR - Consumer Confidence
USD - New Home Sales
USD - Natural Gas Storage
USD - FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
NZD - Trade Balance
GBP - GfK Consumer Confidence
JPY - National Core CPI y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85117 0.85044
gbp/usd 1.27317 1.27167
gbp/aud 1.92298 1.91908
gbp/nzd 2.08548 2.07904
usd/jpy 156.906 156.575
eur/usd 1.08324 1.08213
gbp/jpy 199.587 199.264
eur/cnh 7.85819 7.8478
usd/cnh 7.25801 7.24837
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 18881.1
DOW 39716.2
S&P 500 5340.71
WTI 76.94
GOLD 2362.55

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo


Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.