Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
April 30, 2024

  • Despite the holiday in Japan yesterday there was a huge amount of volatility in USDJPY as rumours of central bank intervention led to a whippy day with the pair trading between 154.55 and 160.17. This represents to widest daily trading range since late 2022 when Japanese authorities last intervened in FX markets. Japan’s currency official, Masato Kanda chose to keep investors speculating by declining to comment when asked about intervention, saying that details of BoJ action would be released at the end of May.
  • Euro area inflation is released later this morning, with the headline print for April expected to have slowed provisionally to 0.6% from 0.8%. At the same time, the GDP report for the first quarter will be released with markets forecasting a small positive print of 0.1%. In line prints will likely further boost the odds of an initial rate cut from the ECB at their June policy meeting. Whilst a June cut is almost a given, the big question is just how many subsequent rate cuts the ECB will be able to deliver this cycle. Markets are currently pricing approximately three reductions by the end of the year, pushing them ahead of the FOMC who do not appear to currently be able to cut until the November or December meeting.
  • The FOMC kick off their two-day policy meeting later today, with no change in policy expected but markets will look for further clues from Chairman Powell’s post meeting speech. This afternoon we look forward to the release of the Consumer Confidence report in a busy week for US data which focuses on the labor market culminating with Friday’s NFP report.

Economic Calendar

:
NZD - ANZ Business Confidence
:
AUD - Retail Sales m/m
:
AUD - Private Sector Credit m/m
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CNY - Manufacturing PMI
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CNY - Non-Manufacturing PMI
:
CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI
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JPY - Housing Starts y/y
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EUR - French Consumer Spending m/m
:
EUR - French Flash GDP q/q
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EUR - German Import Prices m/m
:
EUR - German Retail Sales m/m
:
EUR - French Prelim CPI m/m
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CHF - KOF Economic Barometer
:
EUR - Spanish Flash GDP q/q
:
EUR - German Unemployment Change
:
EUR - Italian Prelim GDP q/q
:
EUR - German Prelim GDP q/q
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GBP - M4 Money Supply m/m
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GBP - Mortgage Approvals
:
GBP - Net Lending to Individuals m/m
:
EUR - Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
:
EUR - CPI Flash Estimate y/y
:
EUR - Italian Prelim CPI m/m
:
EUR - Prelim Flash GDP q/q
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CAD - GDP m/m
:
USD - Employment Cost Index q/q
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USD - S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
:
USD - HPI m/m
:
USD - Chicago PMI
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USD - CB Consumer Confidence
:
NZD - RBNZ Financial Stability Report
:
NZD - Employment Change q/q
:
NZD - Unemployment Rate
:
NZD - Labor Cost Index q/q

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.8537 0.85306
gbp/usd 1.2561 1.2531
gbp/aud 1.92251 1.91267
gbp/nzd 2.11217 2.10207
usd/jpy 156.998 156.164
eur/usd 1.07178 1.0695
gbp/jpy 197.049 196.108
eur/cnh 7.76752 7.755
usd/cnh 7.25508 7.2407
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 17793.7
DOW 38377
S&P 500 5116.28
BRENT CRUDE 86.95
WTI 82.38
GOLD 2322.45

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker

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Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.