Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
April 9, 2024

  • This afternoon’s US inflation report will likely set the tone for the coming days as markets continue to reflect on fewer cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2024. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted earlier this month that the disinflation road will be bumpy, and markets expect the March CPI print to illustrate that point. We have had to contend with two ‘hot’ inflation reports this year and expect rising energy prices to keep headline CPI elevated even as core inflation slowly moderates. Headline inflation is expected to hover around 3% throughout the year, which should be low enough for the Fed to begin cutting rates – although the timing and number remains unclear. Three cuts of 25 basis points, commencing in June appears to be the safe bet currently – but it is worth remembering that at the start of the year markets were pricing in seven cuts in 2024. Minutes of the March FOMC meeting are released this afternoon, and markets will be looking for an explanation as to why the dot plot shifted to fewer interest rate cuts this year.
  • USDJPY remains elevated, trading ever closer to the psychological 152 area trading as high as 151.92 overnight. The single currency continues to consolidate with EURUSD trading between 1.08 to 1.09 as we await Thursday’s ECB policy meeting. Cable holds steady capped below the 100-day MA which comes in at 1.2670. With little UK data on the docket until Friday’s GDP release, the pound will likely be influenced by the greenback and the upcoming US inflation report.

Economic Calendar

AUD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment
AUD - NAB Business Confidence
JPY - Consumer Confidence
JPY - Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y
EUR - French Trade Balance
USD - NFIB Small Business Index
USD - RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism
CHF - Gov Board Member Schlegel Speaks
JPY - Bank Lending y/y
JPY - PPI y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.8582 0.85766
gbp/usd 1.26642 1.26522
gbp/aud 1.91757 1.9143
gbp/nzd 2.09752 2.09297
usd/jpy 151.917 151.789
eur/usd 1.08633 1.08538
gbp/jpy 192.342 192.11
eur/cnh 7.87025 7.8606
usd/cnh 7.2477 7.24035
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 18152.6
DOW 38955.1
S&P 500 5216.47
WTI 86.58
GOLD 2345.43

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.