Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
February 13, 2024

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  • The sterling advances after UK wage data came in higher than estimated by economists but unemployment, however, posted an unexpected drop. UK Oct-Dec wages excluding bonus rose to 6.2% YoY, vs. 6.0% est., and UK Dec. unemployment ticked lower to 3.8%, vs. 4.0% est.
  • GBP/USD is trading at 1.2641 and it is poised to test 1.2650-60 levels, where a lot of option expiries are found this week. From a BOE perspective, this data makes it harder for the central bank to lower rates early, really.

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  • The US Dollar is consolidating across the board as we prepare for today’s key US CPI, which should provide more hints to the Fed’s data dependent outlook. US inflation gauge is expected to have increased by 0.2% last month, the same as December’s revised figures.
  • We keep expecting data to show that the market has priced in too much easing for this year, and this should continue to support the greenback.

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  • The euro is advancing this morning, but I feel like this is the market positioning itself ahead of the US inflation data later today. We are trading at 1.0772 and we are stuck in the 1.0760-1.0790 range since yesterday afternoon.
  • EUR/GBP is lower on UK inflation data trading at 0.8520 and heading towards the major support at 0.85, where we have been testing since July 2023.

Around the World

  • USD/JPY advanced 0.1% to trade near 149.40.
  • AUD/USD fell 0.2% to touch 0.6518.
  • NZD/USD dropped 0.5% to 0.6098 as inflation expectations fell to their lowest in two and half years.

Economic Calendar

AUD - NAB Business Confidence
CNY - Bank Holiday
NZD - Inflation Expectations q/q
JPY - Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y
GBP - Claimant Count Change
GBP - Average Earnings Index 3m/y
GBP - Unemployment Rate
CHF - CPI m/m
EUR - ZEW Economic Sentiment
EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment
EUR - EU Economic Forecasts
USD - NFIB Small Business Index
USD - Core CPI m/m
USD - CPI m/m
USD - CPI y/y
NZD - FPI m/m

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85351 0.85207
gbp/usd 1.26414 1.26089
gbp/aud 1.93858 1.93325
gbp/nzd 2.06876 2.05955
usd/jpy 149.58 149.282
eur/usd 1.07753 1.07604
gbp/jpy 189.081 188.437
eur/cnh 7.77796 7.7637
usd/cnh 7.22275 7.21411
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 17887.1
DOW 38791.1
S&P 500 5021.9
WTI 77.32
GOLD 2024.16

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo


Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.