Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
February 6, 2024

  • flag united states 1f1fa 1f1f8Both EURUSD and cable dropped out of their recent ranges as the post labor market report US dollar rally continued yesterday. The greenback posted further gains after the ISM Services Index showed that new orders had increased during January, prompting analysts to reprice Fed policy, implying a stronger dollar as the chance of a March interest rate cut from the Fed fell away.
  • flag european union 1f1ea 1f1faEURUSD fell through various support levels including the 100-day MA at 1.0785 to trade at an old support level at 1.0725 where the pair found some buying interest. There have been several reasons why EURUSD dropped out of its range; the above print NFP, a hawkish Powell, positive carry, as well as the economic and interest rate outlook all suggest that the pair maybe has further to fall. Euro area PMIs published yesterday did little to support the single currency, unveiling a picture of softer downward trends for production and orders. Eurozone Retail Sales data is on the docket this morning, and we look forward to a couple of Fed speakers later this afternoon as investors continue to search for clues on the timing of the first cut from the FOMC.
  • flag united kingdom 1f1ec 1f1e7Before last week’s US employment report GBPUSD seemed comfortable treading water within a 1.26 to 1.28 range. The break on the downside pushed the pair to within a whisker of the psychological 1.25 area yesterday triggering a brief rally to 1.2550. EURGBP continues to consolidate within the 0.85 to 0.8550 area, although a test of the stubborn 0.85 area seems likely with the pair likely to gradually grind lower.

Economic Calendar

GBP - BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
AUD - Cash Rate
AUD - RBA Rate Statement
AUD - RBA Monetary Policy Statement
AUD - RBA Press Conference
EUR - German Factory Orders m/m
GBP - Construction PMI
EUR - Retail Sales m/m
CAD - Building Permits m/m
NZD - GDT Price Index
CAD - Ivey PMI
USD - RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism
USD - FOMC Member Mester Speaks
CAD - BOC Gov Macklem Speaks
NZD - Employment Change q/q
NZD - Unemployment Rate
NZD - Labor Cost Index q/q

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.857 0.85619
gbp/usd 0.79783 0.7958
gbp/aud 1.93488 1.92518
gbp/nzd 2.07154 2.06573
usd/jpy 148.67 148.36
eur/usd 0.93098 0.92914
gbp/jpy 186.621 186.189
eur/cnh 7.75555 7.736
usd/cnh 7.2195 7.19485
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 17657.5
DOW 38362
S&P 500 4947.46
WTI 72.85
GOLD 2028.33

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.