Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
June 11, 2024

  • The single currency slumped further against the US dollar yesterday following Fridays above print US labor market report as investors mull over weekend European Parliamentary results and a French snap election. The dollar index rose for a third day to its highest level in over a month as EURUSD slipped as low as 1.0733 before recovering. The pair is likely to consolidate around 1.0750 as the market prepares for tomorrow’s US CPI release and FOMC interest rate decision.
  • Data released this morning showed that UK unemployment rose unexpectedly to the highest level in over two and a half years with wages held at a stubbornly elevated level. Rate setters on the MPC will likely be disappointed with the data and the news will further complicate their decision of when to start cutting interest rates. Unemployment rose to 4.4% in the three months through April which is the most since the middle of 2021 as average earnings grew 5.9%, consistent with the previous print but higher than the markets expectation of 5.7%. The data will be a further blow to the BoE who continue to face sticky inflation and are expected to keep interest rates on hold when they next meet on 20 June. The pound dipped a touch on the news with GBPUSD remaining in the doldrums post NFP and trading close to the psychological support area at 1.27. EURGBP remains offered after finally breaking support at 0.8490, dropping the pair to its lowest level in two years.

Economic Calendar

AUD - NAB Business Confidence
GBP - Claimant Count Change
GBP - Average Earnings Index 3m/y
GBP - Unemployment Rate
JPY - Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y
CNY - New Loans
CNY - M2 Money Supply y/y
USD - NFIB Small Business Index
CAD - Building Permits m/m
GBP - CB Leading Index m/m
USD - 10-y Bond Auction
NZD - Visitor Arrivals m/m
JPY - PPI y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.84588 0.84543
gbp/usd 1.2739 1.27244
gbp/aud 1.93187 1.92589
gbp/nzd 2.08138 2.07607
usd/jpy 157.332 157.03
eur/usd 1.07705 1.07611
gbp/jpy 200.342 199.842
eur/cnh 7.82693 7.8175
usd/cnh 7.27135 7.26141
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 19070.4
DOW 38819.1
S&P 500 5361.64
WTI 77.72
GOLD 2302.16

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.