Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
May 14, 2024

  • Data released this morning showed that three-month wages growth in the UK (excluding bonuses) grew a little more than expected. The print came in at 6.0% year-on-year, slightly higher than the 5.9% that economists were expecting. Inflation and inflationary pressures remain a concern for the BoE, although members of the MPC will likely focus more on achieving their 2% CPI target rather than focusing on more volatile labour market indicators. Unemployment rose for a third month, giving rate setters some further confidence of a cooling jobs market with the jobless rate climbing to the highest level since last summer. Markets believe that UK inflation is on the way down and next week’s CPI release should confirm this, keeping hopes of a potential June interest rate cut alive. The pound is little changed after the data release, with GBPUSD hovering around 1.2550 and EURGBP within its recent trading range, treading water just below 0.86.
  • The US dollar remains steady at the start of the week, with the dollar index little changed as the Japanese yen slipped to a fresh two week low. All eyes will be on the US again this afternoon as we await the release of PPI data ahead of tomorrow’s CPI print. Markets expect Producer Prices to maintain a 0.2% growth rate in April after gasoline prices ticked higher.
  • EURUSD is off yesterday’s high after failing to breach stubborn resistance at 1.0810. The pair is back on a 1.07 handle after CPI data for Germany came in broadly as expected.

Economic Calendar

EUR - German Final CPI m/m
GBP - Claimant Count Change
GBP - Average Earnings Index 3m/y
GBP - Unemployment Rate
JPY - Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y
CNY - Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
CHF - PPI m/m
GBP - MPC Member Pill Speaks
EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment
EUR - ZEW Economic Sentiment
EUR - EU Economic Forecasts
EUR - ECOFIN Meetings
AUD - Annual Budget Release
USD - NFIB Small Business Index
CAD - Wholesale Sales m/m
USD - Core PPI m/m
USD - PPI m/m
USD - FOMC Member Cook Speaks
GBP - CB Leading Index m/m
USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks
USD - Mortgage Delinquencies

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85926 0.85888
gbp/usd 1.25605 1.25521
gbp/aud 1.90282 1.89963
gbp/nzd 2.08888 2.08452
usd/jpy 156.499 156.223
eur/usd 1.07921 1.07842
gbp/jpy 196.486 196.185
eur/cnh 7.81467 7.8065
usd/cnh 7.24367 7.2364
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 18194.7
DOW 39444.3
S&P 500 5223.36
WTI 79.21
GOLD 2343.06

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.