Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
May 28, 2024

  • It has been a quiet start to the week with both the UK and US out for public holidays yesterday. Markets return today with the US dollar index a touch weaker with traders seeking fresh direction as month end related flows kick-in over the next few days. The single currency remains solid against the greenback hovering below the psychological 1.09 resistance area as markets look forward to a further update on inflation in the euro area later this week. Flash CPI inflation data for May is released on Friday and will likely show a slight uptick from 2.4% to 2.5%. Any small increase is unlikely to stop the ECB from cutting rates in June, however markets will be monitoring inflation data in the coming months to see how fast rates can be reduced in the second half of the year.
  • Inflation remains an ongoing concern for the Federal Reserve and Friday sees the release of the central banks preferred inflation guide, the core PCE deflator. The Fed is in a real quandary – it wants to cut rates, but recent data and market conditions make that increasingly difficult. Fed officials similarly do not want to hike rates again as they want to avoid a recession. Further clues on the outlook for the US economy will be released in the coming days as we await the Consumer Confidence report later today and the second print of Q1 GDP data which is out on Thursday.
  • It is a very quiet week for UK data, with nothing significant on the docket in the coming days. GBPUSD remains well supported trading in the high 1.27’s and looking to test the psychological 1.28 on any greenback weakness.

Economic Calendar

AUD - Retail Sales m/m
CHF - SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
USD - FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
USD - FOMC Member Mester Speaks
JPY - BOJ Core CPI y/y
EUR - German WPI m/m
GBP - CBI Realized Sales
CAD - IPPI m/m
CAD - RMPI m/m
USD - S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
USD - HPI m/m
USD - CB Consumer Confidence
USD - FOMC Member Cook Speaks
USD - FOMC Member Daly Speaks

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85135 0.85037
gbp/usd 1.27831 1.27703
gbp/aud 1.91923 1.91522
gbp/nzd 2.07619 2.07273
usd/jpy 156.928 156.62
eur/usd 1.088 1.08607
gbp/jpy 200.437 200.15
eur/cnh 7.89656 7.8803
usd/cnh 7.26064 7.25471
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 18868.4
DOW 39100.1
S&P 500 5315.06
WTI 78.89
GOLD 2352.39

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.