Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
February 14, 2024

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  • US CPI released yesterday showed that prices rose more than expected for the month of January, slowing down the disinflation progress and probably delaying any Fed rate cuts. The market now pictures June as the first rate cut, erasing previous bets in the March and May meetings.
  • The US Dollar was lifted on the news, with the DXY moving from sub-104, to currently trade at 104.85.

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  • Cable looks set to test the lower 1.25 area after UK CPI came in softer than initially estimated by economists. The headline print posted a gain of +4%, vs. +4.1% consensus, and the core print, where services are included and a key measure for the Bank of England, advanced to +6.5%, vs. +6.8% estimate. For the bears this data came in as relief following yesterday’s US figures and from Tuesday’s hot wage print.
  • GBP/USD currently trades mid 1.25-1.26 at 1.2560 and next key support is found at 1.25. EUR/GBP is higher after UK’s inflation print, currently at 0.8522, as bet cuts by the BOE increase but the first full priced in cut continues to be in August. Key support at 0.85, where we got rejected several times.

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  • Not much going on the Euro-area this week and EUR/USD is mainly US Dollar driven. We dropped from almost 1.08, to test the key phycological level at 1.07, opening the doors to trade lower at mid-1.06-1.07, where we last traded in November 2023. Next key support near 1.0660.

Economic Calendar

CNY - Bank Holiday
GBP - CPI y/y
GBP - Core CPI y/y
GBP - PPI Input m/m
GBP - PPI Output m/m
GBP - RPI y/y
CNY - Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
GBP - HPI y/y
EUR - Flash Employment Change q/q
EUR - Flash GDP q/q
EUR - Industrial Production m/m
GBP - 10-y Bond Auction
EUR - German 30-y Bond Auction
GBP - CB Leading Index m/m
GBP - BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
USD - Crude Oil Inventories
EUR - German Buba President Nagel Speaks
CAD - Gov Council Member Mendes Speaks
USD - FOMC Member Barr Speaks
NZD - Visitor Arrivals m/m
AUD - RBA Gov Bullock Speaks
JPY - Prelim GDP Price Index y/y
JPY - Prelim GDP q/q

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85266 0.8498
gbp/usd 1.2611 1.25556
gbp/aud 1.95266 1.94118
gbp/nzd 2.08096 2.06547
usd/jpy 150.772 150.416
eur/usd 1.07186 1.07031
gbp/jpy 189.829 188.969
eur/cnh 7.74777 7.733
usd/cnh 7.2337 7.22465
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 17664.6
DOW 38305.4
S&P 500 4966.02
WTI 77.74
GOLD 1991.71

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo


Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.