Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
January 10, 2024

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  • Yesterday was a quiet session with the single currency consolidating in the low 1.09’s as German Industrial Production came in weaker than expected capping the euro’s small gain. The disappointing print (-0.7% versus 0.3%) suggest that the outlook is not going to improve for Europe’s largest economy as some economists revise down their German GDP forecasts for the year. EURUSD treads water ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI release stuck within a range supported at 1.0890 and capped at 1.1010.

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  • The pound is a tad softer this morning currently trading a whisker below the key 1.27 area, with markets in ‘wait-and-see’ mode ahead of tomorrow’s US inflation report. Sterling has started the year well, but the recent UK Retail BRC data was not very encouraging, and the market feels reluctant to build significant long pound positions. We have a plethora of UK data next week which should give the pound some direction, but for now cable continues to trade with a distinct US dollar bias.

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  • Elsewhere, Australia’s monthly inflation gauge moderated for a second straight month in November, which may prompt the RBA to keep rates unchanged when they meet next month. With inflation remaining a headache for many global economies and central banks, the lower-than-expected print was the smallest annual increase since January 2022. The release led analysts to predict that the central bank will follow its December ‘hold’ with a further unchanged move in February with the next move in rates likely to be down.

Economic Calendar

NZD - ANZ Commodity Prices m/m
AUD - CPI y/y
JPY - 10-y Bond Auction
EUR - French Industrial Production m/m
EUR - Italian Retail Sales m/m
CNY - New Loans
CNY - M2 Money Supply y/y
EUR - German 10-y Bond Auction
GBP - BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
USD - Final Wholesale Inventories m/m
USD - Crude Oil Inventories
USD - 10-y Bond Auction
USD - FOMC Member Williams Speaks
NZD - Building Consents m/m

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.8612 0.85966
gbp/usd 1.27177 1.26863
gbp/aud 1.90255 1.89383
gbp/nzd 2.03927 2.03332
usd/jpy 145.131 144.415
eur/usd 1.09363 1.09234
gbp/jpy 184.135 183.568
eur/cnh 7.85661 7.8459
usd/cnh 7.18823 7.17837
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 16685.8
DOW 37500.4
S&P 500 4756.66
WTI 72.67
GOLD 2027.33

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.