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Home > Market Watch > EU & UK News > Wed January 17, 2024

Daily Insights
January 17, 2024

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  • UK inflation numbers came in higher than expected this morning, posting a threat to any bets on an early interest rate cut by the BOE. UK Headline CPI (YoY) rose to +4.0% vs est. +3.8%, and UK Core CPI (YoY) advanced to +5.1% vs est. +4.9%.
  • The sterling reacted on the news, bringing GBP/USD to trade near 1.2640, rising from today’s low of 1.26. EUR/GBP is lower, and now flirting with the 0.86 support – next big support at 0.8550.

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  • The US dollar is higher against most of its peers, heading for its biggest winning streak since March. It feels like the market has started to shift into a risk-off mode where geopolitical fears are taking over (Donald Trump winning big in Iowa; Red Sea tensions driving oil higher).

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  • ECB officials have stamped their foot on the ground when it comes to rate cuts. March bets have reduced significantly since the start of the year and officials now seem to question if an April cut will be appropriate, highlighting the possibility of another mispricing. ECB’s President, Christine Lagarde, stated this morning in Davos that the central bank is likely to deliver a cut by the summer.
  • The Euro is 0.07% lower this morning, and we broke through the key support at 1.0880 comfortably. We are currently trading near 1.086, with the next support at 1.0850 (200DMA).

Economic Calendar

17 Jan 2024
:
CNY - New Home Prices m/m
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CNY - Industrial Production y/y
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CNY - GDP q/y
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CNY - Retail Sales y/y
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CNY - Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y
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CNY - NBS Press Conference
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CNY - Unemployment Rate
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GBP - CPI y/y
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GBP - Core CPI y/y
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GBP - PPI Input m/m
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GBP - PPI Output m/m
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GBP - RPI y/y
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CNY - Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
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EUR - French Gov Budget Balance
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All - WEF Annual Meetings
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GBP - HPI y/y
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EUR - Final Core CPI y/y
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EUR - Final CPI y/y
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GBP - 10-y Bond Auction
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EUR - German 30-y Bond Auction
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CAD - Foreign Securities Purchases
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CAD - IPPI m/m
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CAD - RMPI m/m
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USD - Core Retail Sales m/m
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USD - Retail Sales m/m
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USD - Import Prices m/m
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USD - FOMC Member Barr Speaks
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USD - FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
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USD - Industrial Production m/m
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USD - Capacity Utilization Rate
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USD - Business Inventories m/m
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USD - NAHB Housing Market Index
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EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speaks
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EUR - German Buba President Nagel Speaks
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USD - Beige Book
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USD - FOMC Member Williams Speaks
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NZD - FPI m/m
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JPY - Core Machinery Orders m/m

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.8618 0.8588
gbp/usd 1.26449 1.25965
gbp/aud 1.92858 1.91657
gbp/nzd 2.06478 2.05477
usd/jpy 147.89 147.094
eur/usd 1.08844 1.08553
gbp/jpy 186.846 185.872
eur/cnh 7.85254 7.8332
usd/cnh 7.22249 7.20614
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 16701.9
DOW 37222.9
S&P 500 4743.62
BRENT CRUDE 77.62
WTI 71.65
GOLD 2018.61

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo

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Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.

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