Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
January 31, 2024

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  • It is Fed decision day, and the central bank is likely to keep rates on hold for the fourth consecutive meeting and avoid signalling any immediate cuts. The rates are poised to be held at a range of 5.25% to 5.5% and a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell will follow at 7.30PM UK time. Current market bets point to a 40% chance of a rate cut by the March meeting, but most Fed officials have stated that it is too early for such a pivot.

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  • Euro is heading lower towards the 1.08 level against the US Dollar as investors wait for France and Germany inflation prints. Germany Retail sales data is also due.

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  • UK House prices started the year with a 0.7% gain, according to Nationwide, rising more than forecasted. The sterling is trading lower and in a narrow range after advancing to 1.27 overnight.

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  • China’s disappointing factory activity print is weighing on sentiment this morning. The data has contracted for the fourth straight month in January, showing continuous weakness within the world’s second largest economy.

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  • The Aussie dollar declined as last quarter’s inflation slowed more than expected, boosting bets for another pause by the RBA at its meeting next week. AUD/USD is 0.55% lower on the day, currently flirting with the 0.6560 support.

Economic Calendar

NZD - ANZ Business Confidence
AUD - CPI q/q
AUD - CPI y/y
AUD - Trimmed Mean CPI q/q
AUD - Private Sector Credit m/m
CNY - Manufacturing PMI
CNY - Non-Manufacturing PMI
JPY - Consumer Confidence
JPY - Housing Starts y/y
EUR - German Import Prices m/m
EUR - German Retail Sales m/m
GBP - Nationwide HPI m/m
EUR - German Prelim CPI m/m
CHF - Retail Sales y/y
EUR - French Prelim CPI m/m
EUR - German Unemployment Change
CHF - Credit Suisse Economic Expectations
EUR - Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
EUR - German 10-y Bond Auction
USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
CAD - GDP m/m
USD - Employment Cost Index q/q
USD - Chicago PMI
USD - Crude Oil Inventories
USD - Federal Funds Rate
USD - FOMC Statement
USD - FOMC Press Conference

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.8544 0.85321
gbp/usd 1.27006 1.26672
gbp/aud 1.93282 1.92398
gbp/nzd 2.07452 2.06917
usd/jpy 147.898 147.188
eur/usd 1.08481 1.08148
gbp/jpy 187.417 186.909
eur/cnh 7.79768 7.7719
usd/cnh 7.19171 7.1833
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 17353.8
DOW 38484.8
S&P 500 4909.23
WTI 77.45
GOLD 2036.97

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo


Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.