Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
March 13, 2024

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  • US Core CPI released yesterday won’t be giving the Fed confidence to cut interest rates soon, but it doesn’t rule out any mid-year cutting decisions. Headline and Core CPI rose 0.4% in February (vs. 0.3% est. and vs. 0.4% prior), and on YoY basis, Headline gauge advanced 3.2% (vs.3.1% prior) and the Core dropped to 3.8% (vs.3.9% prior).
  • The US Dollar gained on the news but we’re back to the same levels that we were pre-CPI data. The US Dollar Index continues to hold below 103, after attempting to get to 103.20 yesterday.

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  • The UK economy grew by 0.2% MoM in January in line with the economists’ expectations and consistent with BOE’s Governor Andrew Bailey words that the economy is showing “some signs of upturn”. Industrial Production MoM posted a decline of 0.2% (vs. est. o 0.0%) and YoY, gained 0.5%, but lower than the estimate of 0.8%.
  • The market continues to price the first cut by August and this data is not likely to change much. The sterling dropped on the news, and we are currently trading lower at 1.2770 from being near 1.28 early this morning.

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  • The euro continues to trade mid 1.09-1.0950 ahead of today’s Euro-area industrial production data where a -1.8% drop MoM is estimated. ECB’s Governor Council member Pierre Wunsch stated that policymakers will have to eventually lower interest rates without having the certainty that inflation will be returning to the 2% goal.

Economic Calendar

EUR - German WPI m/m
GBP - GDP m/m
GBP - Construction Output m/m
GBP - Goods Trade Balance
GBP - Index of Services 3m/3m
GBP - Industrial Production m/m
GBP - Manufacturing Production m/m
EUR - Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate
GBP - 10-y Bond Auction
EUR - German 10-y Bond Auction
EUR - Industrial Production m/m
CNY - New Loans
CNY - M2 Money Supply y/y
GBP - NIESR GDP Estimate
USD - Crude Oil Inventories
USD - 30-y Bond Auction
NZD - Visitor Arrivals m/m

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85446 0.85383
gbp/usd 1.27989 1.27869
gbp/aud 1.93823 1.93289
gbp/nzd 2.08176 2.07341
usd/jpy 147.792 147.229
eur/usd 1.09306 1.0922
gbp/jpy 189.039 188.411
eur/cnh 7.8673 7.8481
usd/cnh 7.19856 7.18347
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 18235.6
DOW 39016.6
S&P 500 5179.98
WTI 78.09
GOLD 2160.08

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Francisco Mioludo


Francisco Mioludo is a trader for GPS Capital Markets at the London office. Before joining GPS, Francisco worked in Market Risk at a commodity trading firm in London where he gained valuable skills for his current role. Francisco looks after our EU and UK sales team with everything from analysis to structuring and pricing.