Marketwatch EU & UK

Daily Insights
March 6, 2024

  • As we hit ‘hump day’ the second half of the week becomes far more interesting for data and events. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s two-day semi-annual Congressional Testimony kicks off later today, where markets will look for clues on the timing of the first interest rate cut from the FOMC. Powell is expected to deliver a hawkish testimony following mixed data and ongoing concerns of sticky inflation and a solid labor market. Yesterday’s data came in one the weak side, with the ISM Services report moderating in February to 52.6 from 53.4, slightly below consensus expectations. The ADP Private Payrolls report and JOLT’s job openings are on the docket today but will likely just serve as an appetizer for the main event – Friday’s Non-farm Payroll release. EURUSD made a fresh attempt to the upside again, but was thwarted once again by sellers at 1.0880, a level that offers continual resistance which needs to break to suggest a further test of 1.0925.
  • GBPUSD is also higher, following the disappointing US data, with cable breaching 1.27, albeit, with little conviction so far. UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt delivers his budget later today; however, a pre-election ‘giveaway’ is unlikely based on his governments positioning in the polls. Personal tax cuts appear to be at the centre of his plans with a 2% cut from the National Insurance payroll tax a possibility. A cut in the rate of personal income tax is likely to be in PM Rishi Sunak’s election promise, however the Chancellor is restricted by tight public finances, making a cut today unlikely.

Economic Calendar

AUD - GDP q/q
EUR - German Trade Balance
GBP - Construction PMI
EUR - Retail Sales m/m
USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
CAD - Labor Productivity q/q
GBP - Annual Budget Release
CAD - BOC Rate Statement
CAD - Overnight Rate
CAD - Ivey PMI
USD - Fed Chair Powell Testifies
USD - JOLTS Job Openings
USD - Final Wholesale Inventories m/m
CAD - BOC Press Conference
USD - Crude Oil Inventories
USD - FOMC Member Daly Speaks
USD - Beige Book
NZD - Manufacturing Sales q/q
JPY - Average Cash Earnings y/y

Market Indicators

Currency Pairs
Pair High Low
eur/gbp 0.85479 0.85423
gbp/usd 1.27066 1.26899
gbp/aud 1.95534 1.94864
gbp/nzd 2.09135 2.08367
usd/jpy 150.084 149.807
eur/usd 1.08568 1.0842
gbp/jpy 190.625 190.303
eur/cnh 7.82948 7.8156
usd/cnh 7.21348 7.20927
Equities and Commodities
Nasdaq 100 17950.8
DOW 38559.4
S&P 500 5085.03
WTI 78.43
GOLD 2125.99

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any trading strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in exchange rates or prices or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown on any illustration. All exchange rates and figures appearing are for illustrative purposes only. You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.

About Simon Walker


Simon Walker is head of the GPS Capital Markets trade desk in our London office where he is responsible for covering market risk in European hours. He has over 25 years’ experience in foreign exchange, working in both sales and trading.